News Review - 02 Aug 2019
Brexit Explained

Article 50… the Backstop… “That” Brexit Deal… positive views… negative views… the £39 billion:

Does ANYBODY really understand the full complexity of…

BREXIT?

It all started when Mr Cameron allowed a referendum. He was so confident of winning that there appears to have been no plan B . The result has been chaos!

The Referendum

“A referendum was held on Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting.” ( bbc.co.uk)

David Cameron ‘Misjudged Mood Of Country’

“David Cameron will be remembered for two bad political miscalculations, firstly by agreeing to an EU referendum and secondly for failing to secure a remain vote. The Times thought Cameron guilty of ‘misjudging the public mood’ over his attempt to win a remain vote. For good or ill he was the prime minister who took Britain out of Europe. That is his legacy, however historians fine tune it.” ( theguardian.com)

The EU misjudged the British mood

“European leaders and officials have had a rocky ride leading up to the EU referendum in the UK. First, there was complacency and denial, then a sense of panic, and now a muddled attempt to prepare next steps, whatever the result of the vote.

…German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble: ‘IN IS IN, OUT IS OUT’. Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the EU commission, said that if it quit the bloc, ‘the United Kingdom won’t be handled with kid gloves’.

Britain’s withdrawal would mark a weakening of Europe’s liberal democratic order, many participants agreed. One widely shared sentiment is that Brexit would represent a deep danger to Europe’s democratic ideals because of possible domino effects and because of the overall popular loss of confidence in the EU it would signal.” ( theguardian.com)

Britain’s May ‘Misjudged Mood Of Country’

“Britain’s anti-EU populist Nigel Farage, whose Brexit Party is leading opinion polls, blamed outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May for misjudging the mood of her country by trying to preserve close trade ties with the bloc. ‘It is difficult not to feel for Mrs May, but politically she misjudged the mood of the country and her party’.” ( brecorder.com)

The European Leaders’ Attitude

“On March 30, 2017, the European Parliament’s representative to Brexit, the liberal Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt said:
Britain has shot itself in the foot.
We intend to shoot you in the other’.( express.co.uk)

That £33 Billion… Or £45 Billion… Or £55 Billion Divorce Settlement

As the following article points out, agreement is anything but easy.

“The latest estimate for the size of the UK’s ‘divorce bill’ upon leaving the EU is £33 billion (€36 billion), assuming the UK departs on 31 October this year. The bill is made up of:

  • The UK’s contribution to EU annual budgets up to 2020;
  • Payment of outstanding commitments; and
  • Financing liabilities up to the end of 2020.

In late November 2017, the Telegraph reported that the final payment figure would be ‘between €45 billion and €55 billion.’

A House of Lords report also argued that legally the UK isn’t required to pay a penny…( fullfact.org)

What Is Article 50 Of The Lisbon Treaty?

Almost a year after the referendum, Prime Minister Theresa May wrote to EU President Donald Tusk on May 29th 2017 triggering Article 50. What is Article 50?

“Article 50 is the only legal mechanism for a member state of the European Union (EU) to leave. A short paragraph in the Lisbon Treaty agreed by all EU member states in 2009, it sets out the steps a country needs to go through to withdraw from its treaty obligations.

How can Article 50 be triggered?

The first step is for the UK Government to take a decision to leave. The referendum was not a decision for the purposes of Article 50 – legally it was non-binding – communicating the will of the British people to the Government.

It is only once the Government makes a formal decision that they are required to notify the European Council. This would be done by the Prime Minister, either orally at a meeting or in writing. It cannot be done accidentally – it must be a formal act explicitly intended to trigger Article 50.” ( instituteforgovernment.org.uk)

Theresa May’s “Brexit Deal”

At least there seems to be one point of agreement… Mrs May’s deal was not a deal – it was terrible… it was a surrender!

“The UK’s Prime Minister, Theresa May, has succeeded in what she set out to do. She has brought the country together. Politicians of all colors, along with their supporters, are at last in full agreement. They are united in their hatred of Mrs May’s Brexit deal. And with reason. IT IS A TERRIBLE DEAL.” ( forbes.com)

Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement Is An Abomination

“This is not an exit and future trade agreement. This is not an agreement setting out how the UK and the EU27 will close their partnership and how they will do business together after Brexit. The two sides have had 31 months to agree such terms but have failed to do so, mostly because the EU refused even to discuss it for the majority of this time.

This is a one-sided international treaty THE LIKES OF WHICH HAVE NEVER BEEN SEEN OUTSIDE OF A SURRENDER DOCUMENT FOLLOWING A COUNTRY’S DEFEAT IN WAR. It defines our subjugation to foreign powers for decades to come.” ( facts4eu.org)

The Vital “Backstop”

This is a major bone of contention. If Southern Ireland is a member of the EU, while Northern Ireland is not, then there has to be a border! Simple?

Apparently not!

As things stand right now, Prime Minister Johnson is refusing to negotiate with the EU unless the Backstop is scrapped!

The EU refuses to re-negotiate anything – full stop!

Here we have the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. It will be interesting to see who, if any, gives way!

“After Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will become an international border, rather than an intra-EU border as at present. In the absence of a trade agreement, both the EU and the UK would be obliged to apply the WTO’s [World Trade Organistion’s] ‘Most Favored Nation’ (MFN) rules on that border. This would mean tariffs and regulatory checks on a border which is politically highly sensitive, because of its long history of conflict, and economically extremely important to the economies of Northern Ireland and its southern neighbour.

Neither the UK nor the EU wants there to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit. But preventing one is proving difficult. The UK Government proposed technological solutions that it said would eliminate the need for actual checks at the border, but the EU doesn’t believe that the technology exists.

The EU proposed a temporary arrangement which would keep Northern Ireland in the Customs Union and Single Market until a free trade agreement could be negotiated, but the UK objected on the grounds that customs checks on goods in transit between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would undermine the UK’s own internal market.

The UK’s efforts have been primarily aimed at forcing the EU to undermine its own treaties. FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT OF GOODS & SERVICES, CAPITAL, INFORMATION, AND PEOPLE IS FUNDAMENTAL TO THE EU. These ‘four freedoms’ were first established in the 1957 Treaty of Rome, and were later strengthened in the Lisbon Treaty of 2009. They underpin the operation of the Single Market as well as the entire acquis of EU law.

The UK tried to separate Freedom of Movement from the other Freedoms so that the UK could continue to enjoy frictionless trade with the EU while restricting immigration from the EU. But the EU has steadfastly insisted that the Four Freedoms are indivisible. It repeats this statement in the Political Declaration.

The UK also attempted to argue that the UK could have frictionless trade with the EU without being a member of the Single Market or the Customs Union. This would enable it to strike its own trade deals with other countries without suffering diminished access to EU markets. But the EU said that frictionless trade is a benefit of membership of the Single Market and Customs Union, and is therefore not available to non-members.

As far as the EU is concerned, if the UK wants frictionless trade with the EU, it must remain in the Single Market and Customs Union. This means accepting freedom of movement of people, respecting the primacy of EU law in matters of trade, and refraining from striking trade deals with third countries or blocs that would confer an unfair advantage over EU countries.

It is an appalling deal. It merely buys time at the cost of a considerably weaker negotiating position for the UK. But the EU has already said it will not renegotiate it. If this deal fails, then the options are still NO-DEAL BREXIT, or no Brexit.( forbes.com)

What Is A “NO-DEAL Brexit”

Theresa May secured a deal which MPs then voted down three times; the EU delayed the date of Brexit twice; and now Boris Johnson wants to reshape the deal entirely. But the whole time No Deal has been the backup plan - with Theresa May committing £4 billion or so, and Boris Johnson vowing to ramp up preparations further. So what does it actually mean in practical terms?

The pro ‘no deal’ side see tremendous advantages for the UK.

Fishing

The UK fishing industry could potentially double in size after Brexit, as the UK takes full control of a natural resource which currently is mostly harvested by EU boats. Estimates by Napier (2018) and others suggest a rise in catch of up to £700-800 million per year which with positive supply chain effects could see a total boost to output of around £3 billion per year – already offsetting a third of the possible trade losses.

Ending budgetary payments to the EU

Over the last three years net contributions to the EU have totalled £10 billion per year, or around 0.5% of UK GDP. Ending these payments alone essentially cancels out the possible trade-related losses.

Abolishing the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

The CAP costs British taxpayers twice over – once through subsidies paid to farmers and twice by keeping food prices artificially high. OECD data suggests EU farm prices are around 5% above world prices and our estimates based on this data suggest UK consumers pay around £2 billion per year in higher prices due to the CAP.

Reducing benefit payments to EU immigrants

A targeted immigration policy could keep the fiscal benefits accruing to the UK from high-skilled immigrants while cutting the burden associated with the lower-skilled.

Striking trade deals with third countries

An EU assessment of the benefits of striking free trade deals with a range of third countries including the US and Asian economies suggested these could boost EU GDP by 1.2% and by up to 2% if productivity effects are allowed. For the UK alone this would represent an annual gain in GDP of £25-£40 billion. But the figures could easily be higher for the UK due to the UK’s bigger trade with non-EU countries.

A smart WTO Brexit with well-designed trade, immigration, agricultural, fishing and regulatory policies would, far from being a ‘disaster’, have an excellent chance of delivering substantial long-term net benefits.” ( briefingsforbrexit.com)

The Negative Viewpoint On A ‘No Deal’ Brexit?

Keeping Food in the Supermarkets

“Keeping supermarket shelves full and food prices down will be one of the biggest challenges faced by retailers in the days after a disorderly Brexit. The country’s frozen and chilled food warehouses have been maxed out by worried store chiefs stockpiling staples such as bread, pizza, butter and potatoes.

Problems at the Ports

It is difficult to see how ports could continue functioning as before even if the government’s no-deal plans swing seamlessly into place in [October].

Food Price Inflation

Given that 70% of food imports come from the EU, the potential perfect storm of increased tariffs, delays at ports and a sharp fall in the pound is expected to stoke food price inflation.

The Financial Sector

A no-deal Brexit would leave Britain’s financial services sector without a replacement for passporting rights, meaning banks would be blocked from selling their services freely across EU borders.

National Health Service

NHS bosses fear the impact of any form of Brexit, but particularly a no-deal version, on their vital supply of staff from the EU. All told, a no-deal Brexit would add £2.3 billion to the NHS’s annual running costs, Dayan has calculated. That includes a £1.75 billion hike in the price of medicines.” ( theguardian.com)

The Real Problem

WE ARE ENTERING UNCHARTED TERRITORY! All through the media we see phrases such as… “ the potential perfect storm of increased tariffs…”, “ no clarity about what happens”, “a targeted immigration policy could keep the fiscal benefits”, “data suggests”, “our estimates”, “ potentially double in size…” These words reveal the real problem:

“THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CLARITY ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS.” ( inews.co.uk)

Just where are we, now, in the prophesied panorama of events leading to the END of this age?

As we watch as end time events appear in the news on an almost daily basis, let’s review what we know.

“Never before have we understood these periods of 1260, 1290, and 1335 days. But is seems evident, now, a blessing is pronounced on us – GOD’S CHURCH – who wait and endure until the 1335 days – approximately 1335 days prior to Christ’s coming. But since no one can know the day or the hour of his coming, we probably shall not be able to know the exact day that this 1335 days begins.

But apparently that is the time when OUR WORK SHALL END. That will be a time when the UNITED EUROPE shall appear – the revival of the medieval ‘holy Roman Empire.’

We shall then be warned, and readied to be taken to a place of refuge and safety from the Great Tribulation.

Forty-five days later ‘the beast’s’ armies will surround Jerusalem.

Thirty days later the Great Tribulation will probably start with a nuclear attack on London and Britain – and possibly the same day or immediately after, on United States and Canadian cities.” ( Pastor General’s Report – November 20, 1979)

The Start Of The Great Tribulation

“For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved [alive]…” (Matthew 24:21-22)


“The GREAT TRIBULATION, we shall then fully realize, is the time of ‘Jacob’s Trouble,’ spoken of in Jeremiah 30:7. And Jacob’s name was named on Joseph’s sons, Ephraim and Manasseh (Genesis 48:16).

At that time a third of the people in our nations will die, or shall have died, by famine and disease epidemics; another third will die of the war – our cities being destroyed (Ezekiel 6:6), and the remaining third will be carried to the land of our enemies as slaves. (Ezekiel 5:12)” ( Pastor General’s Report – November 20, 1979)

Then – The Return Of Jesus Christ…

…to take control of the whole earth, ending a three and one half year period of the greatest time of trouble, violence and destruction that the world has ever experienced - and ushering in the “ Wonderful World Tomorrow” - a time of peace and prosperity, where mankind will not learn war anymore.

Cause And Effect

“Yanis Varoufakis shockingly claimed the break up of the eurozone will not be because of crisis-hit Greece or Italy but because of Germany, as Berlin will be the first country to drop out the bloc and print Deutsche Marks.( express.co.uk)

There must be a reason why the Revived Holy Roman Empire attacks both Britain and the USA. Can we see the events leading up to this situation happening right now? Along with the “wars and rumours of wars”, the increase in “earthquakes” and erupting “volcanoes”, we now have BREXIT.

Brexit Has Caused Much Anger In Europe.

If it all goes wrong, which seems a likely outcome, Europe, along with the rest of the world could be plunged into a huge financial meltdown. Britain and the USA would be seen as the source of the crisis…

Politically, Europe also has many problems. Many nations, including Greece, Poland and Hungary, along with Italy, are causing problems for the EU. They want more freedom from the oppressive EU. There is even talk in Germany about ditching the Euro and going back to the Deutsche Mark!

The EU sees Brexit as the “…weakening of Europe’s liberal democratic order” and “…a deep danger to Europe’s democratic ideals”. This is pure hypocrisy – as those who lead the EU are not elected by the people, they are in effect a dictatorship. The real reason the EU is angry is that what is going on is causing a loss of confidence in the EU and its leadership!

If Britain leaves the EU without a trade agreement, it is estimated that over 600,000 German car workers could be out of a job. Add to this the tariffs added by the USA on German cars, and we could see a dramatic drop in Germany’s hard-earned prosperity!

Over 50 years ago, an article in the Plain Truth Magazine gave the following stark warning:

Germany, and all Europe, would not escape unscathed in a hot trade war between the Common Market and the United States. Terrible economic disasters would result! And the result from such disasters? A NEW NAZI GERMANY!( The Plain Truth, December 1963)

Note also: The Nazi AfD party is already the major opposition party in the German government.

Meanwhile, in both America and around the world, with today’s mixed-up weather, we see droughts and floods and fire destroying crops – or even stopping the seed being planted. This will lead to food shortages in the near future – and higher food prices.

Now we see American cities plagued by rats. With thousands of people living on the streets, disease epidemics could become a real problem.

As Mr Armstrong warned:

“The WHOLE WORLD is now ON FIRE! This is not the GREAT TRIBULATION, but is certainly preliminary to it.” ( Pastor General’s Report – November 20, 1979)