Our obsession with Trident is blinding us to the real nuclear danger

UK - This month, 50 world leaders gathered in Washington DC to talk about what measures could be taken to prevent terrorists from accessing nuclear or radiological material. It was the latest in a series of summits which have made important progress in securing nuclear materials.

But the nuclear dangers facing the UK are far larger than those focused on by the summit. They have no easy answers. But if politicians from all our major parties don't confront them, there's just a chance that all of us will regret it. The risk that terrorists might seek to acquire nuclear materials cannot be discounted. Acquiring materials that could be used in nuclear weapons would be catastrophic. But it is also unlikely: there has been an active effort to secure all weapons-usable fissile material and a large number of sting operations.

There are still concerns about potential "loose" nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union, and about the possibility that Pakistani nuclear weapons might be lost or stolen. There are also concerns about the vulnerability of nuclear facilities to sabotage or terrorist attack. The nuclear security summit process has helped to reduce these risks, but the risks cannot be eliminated entirely. Nonetheless, there is a risk that the effort and attention devoted by the summit to this issue might have detracted – or at least not have helped fight – much broader nuclear dangers.

The problem is that nuclear security issues are only a part of the nuclear danger facing the UK – and indeed its allies. Both the UK’s and Nato’s relations with Russia are at their worst level since the Cold War. North Korea is actively testing nuclear weapons and delivery means and recently released propaganda videos in which Washington DC and Seoul were destroyed by nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, there is the real possibility of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan that would directly affect the United Kingdom in a number of ways. Indian strategic planners would also likely argue that China’s role cannot be disentangled from the risks of conflict between India and Pakistan. There are signs that China, in turn, is evolving its own nuclear posture to deter the United States, and this will doubtless require a change in Nato’s nuclear doctrine in due course.

The Iran nuclear agreement reached in summer 2015 and which came into effect in January 2016 is a rare success. However, even with this there is risk. The main provisions of the agreement last for only a decade – a period after which Iran will be left with a substantial enrichment capability.

Our comment

The nuclear “genie” is out of the bottle!

The tone of this and many other articles on the subject, go out of the way to play down the threat of terrorists acquiring, and using, nuclear weapons. ISIS certainly has enough financial backing to buy a bomb. Then there is the risk from Saudi Arabia, who financed Pakistan’s efforts to make nuclear weapons and can have ready made weapons delivered from stock! Nobody seems to want to bring up the subject of the dangers of Muslim nations having access to “the bomb”, but these dangers are real!

In a Co-Worker Letter dated April 21, 1982, Mr Armstrong warned:

Even more disturbing is the growing prospect of NUCLEAR TERRORISM – nuclear MASS MURDER by madmen bent on their own insane goals! Many authorities believe that when the next nuclear bomb is used, it will be by terrorists and not by a national government. The destructive capacity of nuclear bombs in terrorists’ hands is a growing risk. It is a documented fact that uranium and plutonium – vital nuclear arms materials – have been stolen, smuggled internationally and offered for sale.

In addition to terrorist groups, experts fear that unstable regimes in various countries could also get the bomb. An unbalanced Third World dictator with a nuclear device could kill millions of people. A new Stalin or Hitler in a major nation would have the stockpiles to literally obliterate the entire human race! The nuclear “genie” is out of the bottle! Events are even now impelling the world toward a time of cataclysmic destruction. It is time to awake to the imminence of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism!” (Co-worker letter April 1982)

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