MIDDLE EAST - It’s easy to get lost in all things Middle East, especially concerning the chaotic events that unfolded over the weekend in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Three days after the most stunning purge in recent Saudi history - which was really a counter coup, that led to the arrest of dozens of Saudi Arabian royals, ministers and businessmen to further the control of the Kingdom - Saudi Arabia called Yemen’s missile launch on Riyadh an ‘act of war’ by Iran, and also played victim by saying Lebanon has declared war against the Kingdom. How to make sense of this all? The outlook for Saudi Arabia is bleak and in our view, the conditions are perfect for a civil war. The probability of an expansionist war also increases as the kingdom has Iran and Lebanon in its crosshairs.