GERMANY - With the US's international role waning, Europe must define its own future, says a highly anticipated report. This assessment sets the agenda for leaders in the run-up to Germany's pre-eminent conference on security. Security experts are rarely optimists and security reports rarely optimistic. That holds true for the latest Munich Security Report published on Thursday. Titled "To the Brink — and Back?" it forecasts a new era of uncertainty on the horizon.
"In the last year, the world has gotten closer — much too close — to the brink of a significant conflict," wrote Munich Security Conference (MSC) Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger, who has served as Germany's former ambassador to the US and UK.
Ischinger pointed to ever-louder saber rattling between the US and North Korea, the growing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO in Europe. The latest MSC report followed up on last year's forecast that the United States under President Donald Trump could forfeit its established role as the guarantor of international security by acting unilaterally and furthering an American-centric vision at the cost of its traditional allies.
"The world's most powerful state has begun to sabotage the order it created," the report said, quoting John Ikenberry, a US foreign policy expert at Princeton University. The report quotes German Chancellor Angela Merkel as a reminder of Europe's newfound predicament: "The times in which we could completely depend on others are, to a certain extent, over … We Europeans will have to take our fate into our own hands."