In truth it has already begun, encouraged by a decision made far away in Washington, when President Trump on Tuesday withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement. That night Israeli jets struck inside Syria against what Israel said were Iranian militiamen preparing to launch rockets against Israel.

The following evening, Iranian proxies under the command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired a barrage of rockets against Israeli positions on the Golan Heights, an Israeli-controlled sliver of land on the Syrian frontier, drawing a massive Israeli retaliation strike against over 50 Iranian targets.

It was a new spike in the steadily increasing direct clashes that have taken place in recent months between Israel and Iran in Syria. In an effort to stop Tehran from establishing a permanent military foothold in the country, Israel had already struck at least three Iranian bases inside Syria since February, reportedly killing over 20 Iranian military officers.

Given, too, the public reveal last week of a daring Mossad operation deep in the heart of Tehran, it seemed that an Iranian response was just a matter of time. Iran and its allies “must remember,” Lieberman threatened on Thursday, “that if it rains here [in Israel], it will pour there.” The freak confluence of events this week, beginning with Trump’s Iran nuclear decision, the escalation of hostilities over Syria, and consolidating around the days ahead in Jerusalem and the Palestinian Territories, hold the potential at least for a major tempest.