The logic was right. The United States runs huge and seemingly perpetual trade deficits with many of its largest trading partners. The US is a necessary market for many of the world’s largest companies. This should give the US bargaining power in negotiating more favorable trade agreements. But just as in conventional war, winning a trade war requires leadership to marshal a national consensus to support the effort, resolve to withstand counter-attacks, and an ability to outwit one’s rivals.

At least in the early stages of the trade dispute with China, the Trump administration does not appear to be winning. The US has agreed to push the pause button on threatened tariffs on China’s exports, while China has given up very little except vague promises to buy more US goods and lift some tariff barriers on US auto parts. China shows no signs of relaxing its national plans to dominate high tech manufacturing by hook or by crook.