The Outlook For The Global Economy Has Deteriorated

USA - Oil, copper and lumber are all telling us the exact same thing, and it isn’t good news for the global economy.  When economic activity is booming, demand for commodities such as oil, copper and lumber goes up and that generally causes prices to rise.  But when economic activity is slowing down, demand for such commodities falls and that generally causes prices to decline.  In recent weeks, we have witnessed a decline in commodity prices unlike anything that we have witnessed in years, and many are concerned that this is a very clear indication that hard times are ahead for the global economy.

Let’s talk about OIL first.  The price of oil peaked in early October, but since that time it has fallen more than 25 percent, and the IEA is warning of “relatively weak” demand out of Asia and Europe…

Meanwhile, the price of COPPER has been declining for quite some time now.  The price of copper also fell substantially just before the last recession, and many analysts are pointing out that “Dr Copper” is now waving a red flag once again…

The price of LUMBER is a “third witness” that indicates that big trouble is looming. Last month, lumber dropped more than 10 percent, and that was the biggest monthly drop that we have seen in more than 7 years… If oil, copper and lumber are all telling us the same thing simultaneously, don’t you think that we should be listening?

How many signs is it going to take before people start understanding what is happening? Global economic activity is slowing down, and things are shifting very rapidly now. The weather is already getting very cold, the mood of the nation is very dark, and it would only take a very small push to send us completely tumbling over the edge.

Our comment

In his autobiography, Mr Herbert Armstrong quoted the well-known statistician Roger Babson:

“‘When I want to know what the temperature in this room is going to be an hour or two from now I don’t consult the thermometer on the wall. I go to the boiler room and see what is going on down there. I go to the factor that CAUSES the future temperature.

You men were looking at bank clearings, retail sales, wholesale indexes, stock car loadings and trends – the thermometers on the wall.’ But Mr Babson said he had learned that when 51 percent or more of the people were righteous in their dealings with one another, prosperity was just ahead. But when 51 percent or more of the people were unrighteous in their dealings, economic depression was coming.” (The Autobiography, Volume 2)

Take the banks as an example. Many who finance business, are involved in scandal - the Libor scandal, sales of shoddy mortgage-backed securities, Foreign Exchange and precious metal rigging and so on... so it looks like the 51% + being dishonest is with us right now!

However, even the "thermometers on the wall" tell a similar story. Look at what companies are buying - commodities - to produce the goods which they sell. As the article points out, “In recent weeks, we have witnessed a decline in commodity prices unlike anything that we have witnessed in years” because there is less demand for their products.

The stock market is also dropping: The latest drop in the stock market saw over $1 trillion wiped off the shares of the “big 5” Tech companies - Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet...

As the article asks: “How many signs is it going to take before people start understanding what is happening?”

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Today we find the Church of God in a “wilderness of religious confusion!”

The confusion is not merely around the Church – within the religions of the world outside – but WITHIN the very heart of The True Church itself!

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Listen to Me, You who know righteousness, You people in whose heart is My Law: …I have put My words in your mouth, I have covered you with the shadow of My hand, That I may plant the heavens, Lay the foundations of the earth, and say to Zion, “you are My people” (Isaiah 51:7,16)