The EU we have known for the last 20 or 30 years is not going to be there anymore. Is this a pessimistic view? No, because the EU has been changing very much during the last decades. My argument is directed against those who are convinced that nothing can happen because the European Union is going to stay and the current crisis is a normal one. No, it's a more radical crisis than any other we have ever experienced before.

In Germany, the least guarded border is the one between mainstream political parties and the more extreme ones. People are moving in all directions: not just from the mainstream parties to the populist parties, but also the other way around. This level of confusion, this fear of the future also reflects the mentality of an ageing society. Germany's way of thinking about the world resembles the perspective of retired people and pension funds.

We enter a period in which Europe is probably going to do some risky things in order to succeed. Germany seems very stable and successful, but at the same time very risk averse. It remains to be seen whether this risk aversion offers Germany the leadership of the European Union.