MIDDLE EAST - It doesn't take a crystal ball to see that the Middle East's 2020 will be tumultuous. Libya's civil war has taken a dangerous turn, with Russian mercenaries and Turkish forces joining the fray as General Khalifa Hifter's forces push into the capital. Yemen's still ravaged by economic blockade and war, despite recent efforts on all sides to de-escalate the conflict. Syria's civil war continues to metastasize, with a massive new wave of refugees fleeing violence in Idlib. Large-scale popular protests are challenging Iraq's government, which is bracing for fallout from the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran. Israel and the Palestinian territories could dramatically change their relationship, as the prospects of a two-state solution dissolve. And protest movements throughout the region could shake up half a dozen regimes.
Here are three trends to watch in the Middle East over the coming year: Expect these three trends to bring numerous crises during this US election year, shaping the challenges that will await the next administration.
1. Every government is on edge about the US 2020 election:
Usually, when the US government changes hands, US foreign policy in the Middle East remains steady and consistent. No more.
2. Conflicts in the gulf region are getting harder to control:
The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has inflicted economic pain - while accomplishing few or none of its strategic objectives.
3. Protests and more protests
2019's wave of protests across the Middle East rivaled those of the Arab Spring in 2011 - and in some ways were more impressive. Protests challenged regimes in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon; forced political change in Algeria; and overthrew the Sudanese regime. More will come.