USA - So many reasons exist to be suspicious of the current boom in world stock markets, it's hard to know where to start. The renewed eurozone crisis, slowing growth in China, sovereign debt down-grades, the flattering effect of QE. I could go on.
But there is a more subtle flashing light we should be equally alarmed by: the fact that the financial whizzkids in the big banks are back, in force, making super-complicated derivatives again. Many a psychological study has found that humans take about seven years to get over, and then forget about, a major trauma. Historically, stock markets, being driven by humans, have tended to have a similar length memory of catastrophes, before making the same dumb mistakes again.
But it hasn't even been five years since derivatives (on that occasion based on daft mortgages) blew up the world, and yet these exotic creatures have already returned. With a vengeance.
Research from Thomson Reuters declared that banks were creating more derivatives known as asset-backed securities than at any time since before the Lehman Brothers crash. Of those, 22 per cent were made up of – and forgive me the alphabet soup here – CDOs and CLOs. The very type of derivatives that exploded last time. At this stage last year, only 6 per cent fell into those categories.
In other words, banks are creating more of the riskiest types of the riskiest products.
Here we go again!
It is often said that those who don’t learn from the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them. The situation today is very similar to the days before the crash of 2008. Is it not therefore reasonable to assume that a similar outcome will occur?
The problem is, this time around the problems are even greater, and the last tool in the box - quantitative easing - has already been tried! Will governments be able to rescue the banks as they did last time? And if so – how? – and with what?
It now seems almost certain that a major financial crash will trigger end time events. More and more we must keep watching - and keep plugged into the vine, on our knees!