EUROPE - Currency war is the next phase of global conflict and Europe, the chief parasite, is defenceless. There is going to be an ugly fight for scarce global demand. Europe has been warned. Any use of monetary levers to hold down the euro exchange rate will be deemed a provocation by the Trump administration.
Further cuts in interest rates to minus 0.5 percent or beyond will be scrutinized for currency manipulation. A revival of quantitative easing will be considered a devaluation policy in disguise, as indeed it is, since the money leaks out into global securities and depresses the euro. “The ECB has masked the fragility over the last seven years and nobody knows when the hour of truth will come,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, economic adviser to France’s Emmanuel Macron and a fellow at the Bruegel think tank.
“There is no common deposit scheme for banks. Cross-border investments are retreating. The vicious circle between banks and states could come return any moment,” he said. The threat is a deflationary slump. The ECB has no answer to this. The exhausted monetary warrior was telling us that the ECB cannot alone save the European project a second time.