ISRAEL - In the wake of the US and Iran announcing a Memorandum of Understanding to end the conflict between the two nations that includes a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israeli ministers have said Israel isn’t bound by the agreement. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that the IDF will not withdraw from its so-called “security zones” in southern Lebanon, which include a major swathe of Lebanese territory, and will also continue the occupation in southwest Syria and Gaza. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I are leading a clear policy that determines that the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, without any time limit, to protect, from there, the border and Israeli communities against jihadist elements,” Katz said. Netanyahu later put out his own statement reaffirming what Katz said, vowing that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza.

MIDDLE EAST - The US-Iran de-escalation deal may bring oil tanker traffic back to something resembling the pre-war norm, but the global energy trade will never be the same. Oil prices will very likely fall — Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent forecast from $90 to $80 per barrel on Monday. But with so much uncertainty ahead, no one believes oil prices are fully out of the woods yet: Assuming a real ceasefire actually holds, it will take time, possibly months, to clear out trapped tankers and bring in new empty ones, and to rebuild and restart damaged production and export facilities. There will also be demand for oil to refill heavily depleted reserves in the US and elsewhere. The Strait of Hormuz will never really be “open” in the same way again, either. Iran has proven, and maintains, its military capacity to shut it down with relative ease, and may emerge from these talks with the long-term ability to exact “fees” for transit.

USA - Researchers at the University of Bern in Switzerland in collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and others recently released a study based on 1,000 years of earthquake data along Southern California’s San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems showing tectonic stress on these faults has now reached — and in some segments exceeded — the highest levels seen in the past millennium. The scientists suggest the region is in a “critically loaded” state, raising the long-term risk of one or more major earthquakes, which could even include a large multi-fault rupture. Los Angeles and the Inland Empire would be at major risk, with highways, rail, power, and nuclear facilities likely suffering major damage. The pressure has been building for centuries. And pressure doesn’t disappear. It gets released. The only question is how much. And when.” If the pressure has been building for centuries… what happens when it finally breaks?”

USA - There has been widespread fear and panic communicated by some media sources in recent weeks warning American consumers about a “flesh-eating screwworm” that is supposedly devastating cattle herds and driving up beef prices. So let’s throw some truth on this narrative and look at some actual facts. First, as of this month, June of 2026, there have allegedly been a total of six cases of New World screwworm (NWS) found in the US. Yes, you read that correctly: 6 TOTAL CASES IN THE ENTIRE US. From these very few cases of screwworm infection in the US, the government is doing what it usually does when there is some kind of “deadly disease breakout,” by putting into place a plan of action that will cost hundreds of millions of dollars which will then go into the US economy to stop this “breakout.”

MIDDLE EAST - Of one thing we can be certain about the imminent agreement between the US and Iran to end hostilities between the two countries: it does not presage peace in the Middle East. The region is fated to endure periodic surges of conflict and violence because the underlying causes are never resolved. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) mediated by Qatar and Pakistan is emblematic of this very failure. It extends the existing ceasefire and offers Donald Trump a way out of a war he must wish he had never started by being able to claim some successes. These include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s agreement to stop holding the world to ransom by blocking unfettered transit of shipping in and out of the Gulf. It was always unacceptable that Tehran should be allowed to continue to treat such a critical international waterway as its own toll route. However, the conflict that began in February has demonstrated the power the regime possesses in being able to shut down the Strait whenever it chooses and choke off global energy supplies. That bodes ill for the future.

MIDDLE EAST - In order to strike an effective deal, you must understand the psychology of the enemy. So let’s look at the most recent evidence and work backwards. Over the past few days, Iran has shot down an American helicopter, attacked Kuwait’s international airport, menaced Hormuz with drones – several were downed on Saturday night – and launched missiles at Israel. Clearly, this is not the behaviour of an adversary that is desperate for peace.

MIDDLE EAST - What was the point? On the upside, Iran has sustained the mother of all military and economic batterings. On the downside, it appears to be rapidly rebuilding its strength. And under the terms of a new “peace” deal, will it soon be aided by many billions of dollars of sanctions relief from the very president who condemned Barack Obama for doing just that? Before the war, America’s deterrent was fearsome; Donald Trump was able to press Hamas into a hostage deal in Gaza with apocalyptic rhetoric alone. Who will take him seriously now? We were told “a whole civilisation would die”, but with Trump at the helm, it is Western civilisation that finds itself in decline. On February 28, the mightiest military power in history was mobilised against the evillest regime on Earth. Four months later, we have no answer to the nuclear question; no containment of Iran’s proxies; no curbs on its ballistic missiles; no guarantees on Hormuz; no regime change in Tehran. This is not just a humiliation for Washington but, with China and Russia taking notes, an extremely dangerous one. As Henry Kissinger warned during the Vietnam war: “The word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

USA - The president has made peace, the regime limps on and the rulers of Russia, China and North Korea can relax. But this may not be the end of the story. The full terms of the US-Iran deal have not been published, but we know how President Trump interprets it — as yet another reason why he should win a Nobel prize. “Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran,” he said. “All have failed before me.” Many backers of the war when it started nearly four months ago would not have listed that “achievement” as one of its goals.

MIDDLE EAST - After 13,000 American air strikes killing almost 3,500 Iranians, Donald Trump’s war has ended not with the triumphant downfall of Iran’s regime but a quick and partial deal with the very leadership he once vowed to destroy. The outcome has to be compared with Mr Trump’s extravagant promises when he launched the onslaught. “To the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” he declared on February 28. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

MIDDLE EAST - Like South Vietnam in the 1970s, Gulf states are contemplating the limits of US power as the Iran peace deal leaves them with an angry and emboldened neighbour. The US-backed leader bemoaned America’s abandonment of his cause after it plunged the region into a disastrous war and then signed a peace deal with their enemies. “You Americans with your 500,000 soldiers … You were not defeated — you ran away!” he said.