IRAN - Iran has rejected significant parts of Donald Trump’s peace plan, ruling out an immediate deal to dismantle its nuclear programme or hand over its enriched uranium. The fate of Tehran’s 450kg of near weapons-grade material has been a key stumbling block in negotiations. America and Israel have consistently maintained that Iran must hand over the enriched uranium as part of a comprehensive deal to end the war. Instead, Iran issued a counter-proposal through Pakistani mediators which swept aside most of Washington’s key demands. Tehran proposed an end to the fighting “on all fronts, especially Lebanon” and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz along with the US lifting its naval blockade – before nuclear issues begin to be negotiated. The US president branded Tehran’s response as “totally unacceptable”. The significant gaps between both sides make it unclear whether a comprehensive peace agreement could follow, raising fears of a protracted conflict in the Middle East.

IRAN - No matter how hard the Iranians try to pretend they have the upper hand in negotiations to end hostilities with the US, the inescapable reality is that the ayatollahs desperately need to seal a deal – and quickly – if the Islamic Republic is to stand any chance of surviving the conflict. While Iranian negotiators are doing their level best to string out negotiations with the Trump administration in the hope of securing a better deal, their efforts are nothing more than an attempt to conceal the regime’s catastrophic weakness.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - The United Arab Emirates, one of the richest petro-states in the world, has confirmed it wants a permanent emergency dollar swap line from the US government. “It is an elite matter,” the country’s trade minister, Thani al-Zeyoudi, said. “It is not about bailing [us] out.” The request, which has been confirmed by Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, has been couched as a matter of statecraft and symbolic support for one of Donald Trump’s closest allies in the Gulf. But the request for a swap line — traditionally used during financial panics and currency collapses — has inadvertently raised questions about the fiscal health of the oil-rich emirates, which have been disproportionately targeted by Iranian missiles over the past three months. Last week, missiles targeted the deep sea port of Fujairah, the terminus for an important oil pipeline that carries 1.5 million barrels a day. Is the UAE’s economy in trouble? Confirmation of the dollar swap line came days after the Emirates shocked oil markets by quitting Opec, the cartel that it had been a member of since the country’s inception. The government said it wanted to raise oil production outside quotas set by Saudi Arabia.

UK - Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to rejoining the EU single market after the next general election. In an attempt to save his faltering premiership, the Labour leader pledged to put Britain at the heart of Europe and “set a new direction” for the country by renewing ties to Brussels. Sir Keir suggested in a reset speech that a promise to join the single market or the customs union would be included in a Labour manifesto at the next national poll, expected in 2029. Challenged on whether he could rule that out, he responded: “I strongly believe we’ve got to turn our back on the arguments of the past – not open old grievances, but look forward together to how we make this country stronger, how we make this country fairer. And so, that’s the approach that I will take.” The Prime Minister previously said joining the single market or customs union and restoring freedom of movement were “red lines” of Brexit that he would not cross.

GERMANY - The headlines are filled with reports of growing discord inside NATO. Donald Trump openly questions the value of allies who, in his view, fail to carry their share of the burden. Western Europe complains about the unreliability of its American patron while simultaneously pledging loyalty to the Atlantic alliance. Beneath the daily noise, however, something far more significant is taking place: the gradual transformation of Europe’s political and military order.

EUROPE - Around 70% of people living in the EU and UK want more independence from the US and believe it’s time for Europe to “go its own way,” a new study compiled by the Germany-based research foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung indicates. According to the survey, some 73% of respondents across the EU believe that it is time for the continent to drift away from Washington. UK respondents expressed a similar level of desire to free themselves from the clutches of the US, measuring at 67%. The sentiment has been steadily growing across the bloc over the past few years, measuring some 63% back in 2024, the foundation noted. The level of mistrust towards the US has been growing as well, with only 42% deeming it a trustworthy partner...

NORTH KOREA - North Korea has changed its constitution so its military is required to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike if Kim Jong-un is assassinated by a foreign adversary. The change was made after Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and many of his closest advisers were killed in strikes at the start of the joint US-Israeli attacks against the regime in Tehran. According to the NIS briefing, Kim has command of the North’s nuclear forces, but the changes codify procedures for retaliatory attacks in the event that he is incapacitated or killed. The revised Article 3 of the nuclear policy law states: “If the command-and-control system over the state’s nuclear forces is placed in danger by hostile forces’ attacks... a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately.” Kim is known to be fearful about his personal security and is always accompanied by bodyguards.

TAIWAN - Taiwan is confident in the stable development of its ties with the US but hopes there are no "surprises" on Taiwan-related issues when US President Donald Trump visits China this week, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Monday. Trump will be in Beijing from Wednesday to Friday for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping where the issue of democratically governed Taiwan, which China views as its territory, is certain to come up. China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, and last month China's foreign minister said Taiwan was the "biggest risk" in China-US relations. Taiwan's government rejects China's sovereignty claims. The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week there needed to be stability across the Taiwan Strait.

USA - Here is the puzzle. Every expert on commodity markets knows the closure of the strait is a very big and very bad deal. By any measure, this is the biggest disruption to the global oil market we have ever seen, bigger than the shocks of the 1970s. Something equally big is happening to the global supply of urea, a crucial ingredient of modern fertilisers. And don’t forget the hit to sulphur, crucial to many industrial processes; and helium, essential for semiconductor manufacture. The shock is already palpable in many developing economies. Yet the world’s financial markets, and especially the US stock markets, appear not to have registered this.

FAR EAST - The disruptions have hit farmers entering key sowing periods, particularly those dependent on urea fertilizer and imported fuel. Supply pressure linked to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has limited access to key agricultural inputs, the report said. Thai rice farmers have delayed or reduced planting as production costs rise above expected sales revenue. One farmer cited in the report said planting and harvesting would cost roughly $33,000, while the crop would be expected to sell for about $22,000. The disruption has affected Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Australia, where farmers have begun major planting periods.