IRAN - Iran has escalated its strikes against US allies in the Persian Gulf region after the US launched "Project Freedom" — a humanitarian effort to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — by launching ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE, striking the Fujairah oil terminal which allows the UAE to export oil without entering the strait. Iran's message is clear: "If they are not allowed to sell their oil, no one in the region is allowed to sell their oil either," directly challenging the petrodollar system and proving that the United States "can no longer guarantee the flow of energy." Iran has more ballistic and cruise missiles than the US has in the region, and the US bases have been so heavily damaged that they will take "years and years" to rebuild, with 13 out of 19 US military bases destroyed or rendered unusable.

MIDDLE EAST - Rubio announces end of Operation Epic Fury, says US has concluded offensive stage of Iran war. Rubio also announced that Operation Epic Fury has ended, and the United States has transitioned to taking defensive action in enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Tuesday press conference. "Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation," Rubio told reporters, saying that the offensive stage of the war with Iran was "over". "We are only responding if attacked first. This is a defensive operation," Rubio said. "If no shots are fired at these ships and no shots are fired at us, we're not firing shots, but if we're fired on, we will respond."

USA - Allies watch with concern as US critically depletes stocks of key munitions that they also rely on. The Iran war has critically depleted stocks of some of the most important and expensive weaponry in the US defensive arsenal, according to analysis by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank. In the 38 days of war before the ceasefire, the US spent at least $25 billion on launching vast amounts of munitions at 13,000 Iranian targets and on shooting down Iranian missiles and drones. For some of its key weapons, such as Patriot missiles, Thaad interceptors and Tomahawks, it has used one third to one half of its stocks. The timetable for replenishing this inventory runs to four or five years. Arms manufacturers aren’t willing to crank up production until Congress approves the budget. Meanwhile, US allies in Europe and Asia are watching with concern as the Pentagon shifts crucial defensive systems – which had previously been protecting their regions – to the Middle East.

UK - Andrew Bailey has raised the alarm about a potential “shadow banking” crisis that could send shock waves through the global financial system. The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which is chaired by the Bank of England Governor, warned in a new report that traditional banks, insurers and pension funds had become potentially dangerously intertwined with the $2 trillion (£1.4 trillion) private credit market, often dubbed shadow banking. The shadow banking industry is where companies borrow from funds and private equity houses rather than banks. It has expanded rapidly in recent years as regulators around the world have tightened the rules governing mainstream banking. However, the FSB, which works with central banks and governments around the world, warned that the private credit market had not been tested by a severe economic downturn, meaning any shock could result in unexpected consequences throughout the financial system.

UK - Some farmers aren’t sowing crops this spring. “What’s the point,” one neighbour explained. “Diesel costs are sky high and fertiliser is so expensive, I might as well stay in bed.” Red diesel, used on farms, has already shot up from 75p a litre to over £1 this year. It’s needed for ploughing, planting and harvesting crops such as wheat and barley. The most popular artificial fertilisers, which contain ammonia and sulphur from the Middle East, have doubled in price. Dairy farmers are also facing severe problems with energy-intensive milk production. The cost of growing crops looks likely to rise by, on average, £150-£250 per hectare, and that’s not including the possibility of poor weather conditions this summer. Dairy farmers say the war has added £200 to the annual cost of each cow in their herd. Many farmers will struggle to make any profit and will tip further into debt, the National Farmers’ Union warns. It’s easy to see why its members might decide to leave their fields fallow if planting causes a loss; they are businesses, not charities.

USA - The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. In two weeks, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker will have fully unloaded at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and departed again for distant waters. After that, California must figure out how to replace some 200,000 barrels of oil a day that will no longer be arriving from the Persian Gulf. Now, with the end of the Middle East conflict nowhere in sight and the average cost of California gasoline topping $6 per gallon, some lawmakers are warning of potential oil and gas shortages.

USA - Corporate media is talking about the disruption of oil supplies due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but, except for The Telegraph, hasn’t said a word about the disruption to global helium supplies. The world has lost 40% of its helium supply since the start of the conflict in the Gulf, primarily due to supply disruptions from Qatar and Russia. The country most reliant on imported helium is China. Helium is a crucial component in the production of advanced AI chips and semiconductors. Qatar, which normally supplies a third of the world’s helium (a by-product of natural gas production at its giant North Field), has not shipped any helium since the Iranian conflict began, and Vladimir Putin’s ban on helium exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union has further exacerbated the shortage.

UK - The Royal Navy's fleet of frigates was reduced to just five today after the withdrawal of HMS Iron Duke - while the Army has 'no money to buy weapons'. The warship is to be retired due to technical issues just three years after a £103 million refit. HMS Iron Duke has suffered technical issues since 2017. Since then more than 1.7 million man-hours have been spent in a bid to salvage her. The shocking catalogue of issues with the frigate drained the Royal Navy's budget at a time of unprecedented concern about the UK's defence capabilities.

MIDDLE EAST - The announcement that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is a further blow to a cartel whose grip on international oil markets is weakening. Opec countries, led by Saudi Arabia, hold around 80 per cent of global oil reserves but produce only about 40 per cent of supply. Some of that reflects deliberate attempts to support prices, but much of it is due to the fact that several members lack the capacity to produce more. Within Opec, the UAE was the second-largest producer. The UAE has invested heavily both in its production capacity and the infrastructure that allows it to bypass the strategic bottleneck of the Strait of Hormuz. And it does not appreciate being prevented by Saudi Arabia from monetising this investment.

EUROPE - Officials in Brussels joke about Canada joining the EU. Even some European leaders, including Alexander Stubb, the Finnish president, have started to entertain the idea. It remains a pipe dream for now – but Mark Carney will at least play the part of a European leader in Yerevan, Armenia, on Monday. The Canadian prime minister will become the first leader of a non-European state to join a summit of the European Political Community. The gathering of some 45 regional leaders was initially conceived by Emmanuel Macron as a response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.