QATAR - There are many important places in the world, many crucial pieces of infrastructure and, as we have learnt this past week, many critical chokepoints, but few are quite as important as the Ras Laffan complex, at the very nape of Qatar. No other single gas field, or for that matter oilfield or coalmine or uranium mine, accounts for quite so much of the world’s useful energy. The North Field is in a league of its own, as is Ras Laffan, which processes most of the gas coming out of it.
USA - Trump is right. It is crucial, now perhaps more than ever, to acknowledge the cogency of his diagnosis of what has gone wrong over the past quarter-century. The West has been taken for a fool, played by enemies within and regimes abroad, such as that in Tehran. He was right, too, that there needed to be a dramatic, muscular corrective.
USA - Donald Trump is of a generation still scarred by the embassy hostage crisis in 1979 that defined US-Iranian enmity. It was a humiliation he has never forgotten. At the height of the Iranian hostage crisis, with dozens of American citizens held captive inside the US embassy in Tehran, Donald Trump advocated a full-scale invasion of Iran and the seizure of its oil fields. Diplomacy had failed; President Jimmy Carter was floundering, unable to secure the release of the hostages and unwilling to resort to force; oil prices had more than doubled with the collapse of Iranian oil production.
MIDDLE EAST - The USS George H W Bush (CVN 77) is expected to deploy to the eastern Mediterranean, Fox News reported on Saturday, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford as the third US Navy aircraft carrier active in the region. The Bush recently completed the Composite Training Unit Exercise (COMPTUEX), which “brings together all elements of a carrier strike group to operate as a cohesive, multi-domain fighting force,” according to the US Navy. Like the Lincoln, the Bush is a Nimitz-class supercarrier. The Ford carrier strike group crossed the Suez Canal on Thursday, while the USS Abraham Lincoln is stationed in the Gulf.
MIDDLE EAST - As long as the present regime remains in power in Iran, there will be no genuine revival of Gulf-Iran relations. Only a new regime could mend the rifts. The Arab world, broadly speaking, is in crisis. Apart from summits and empty declarations, it has played little meaningful role in the Israel-Hamas War that began after Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023. The Arab world appears fragmented. However, an attack by a non-Arab state on six Arab ones generates solidarity rooted in shared Arab identity. Saudi Arabia is still waiting; though an Aramco refinery has been hit, the kingdom has not yet responded militarily. It can be estimated, however, that if Iranian attacks intensify, the crown prince will be compelled to respond since his leadership is being tested.
MIDDLE EAST - No one can afford a conflict like the 1940s but if America depletes its military in Iran then China and Russia may gleefully take advantage. In just over one week we have seen the new Gulf War spread across the region, sending global energy prices soaring and drawing in different world powers. And as if that wasn’t enough, the idea that the chaos might swiftly be stilled has been scotched by President Trump talking again about regime change and the Iranians rebuffing attempts at mediation.
SUDAN - Experts are warning of a new risk emerging from Sudan’s civil war: that violence may spread in the region amid foreign influence that links countries from central Africa to the Arabian Gulf. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the government army, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has torn the country apart since April 2023 and displaced 13 million people, according to the United Nations. Both sides have been accused of war crimes and a UN group found “hallmarks of genocide” in the RSF’s takeover of El Fasher in North Darfur in October. “The war is getting worse, and way more complex because of regional dynamics,” Sarra Majdoub, a former UN security council expert on Sudan, said. “I don’t think it’s a civil war any more.”
UK - Sir Keir Starmer could pay for 15 new warships or quadruple the size of the British Army by halting this year’s £18 billion rise in welfare spending, analysis has shown. A study found that a single year’s increase in benefits and pensions spending could have bought 15 advanced Royal Navy frigates or 220 fighter jets. Alternatively, it could have paid 250,000 soldiers’ salaries.
UK - There was a time when Britain stood alone as the defender of the free world. It came, of course, in 1940, when after the fall of France, our country was the only one to defy the rise of Nazi Germany in Europe. Today, we find ourselves alone once more, but for entirely different reasons. Typically, Donald Trump saw our bruise and punched it: under Keir Starmer, he said, this was “not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with”. Not so in Britain. Ever since Franklin D Roosevelt brought the United States into the war after his “day of infamy” speech to Congress, both our national security and national psyche have been wedded to our transatlantic cousins. We have stuck with the Americans through thick and thin, epitomised at its height by those immortal pictures of Margaret Thatcher dancing with Ronald Reagan in 1988.
MIDDLE EAST - The US has lost nearly $2 billion worth of military equipment amid its military operations against Iran since Saturday, according to estimates and data compiled by Anadolu.The chief driver of the cost is a US AN/FPS-132 early warning radar system at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, valued at $1.1 billion, which was hit with a missile strike by Iran on Saturday. Qatar confirmed that the radar was hit and damaged. On Sunday, 3 F-15E Strike Eagles were lost in a friendly fire incident by Kuwaiti air defenses. While all six aircrew survived, the planes did not; the cost of replacing them is estimated at $282 million. Iran also claimed to have destroyed the AN/TPY-2 radar component of the THAAD Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System deployed at Al-Ruwais Industrial City in the United Arab Emirates. Satellite imagery through open-source intelligence reports suggests that there has been a hit. The destroyed radar component is estimated to be worth $500 million. Combining these costs, Iran has damaged $1.902 billion worth of US military assets in the region.
IRAN - The war between the United States, Israel, and the Iranian regime dramatically escalated Saturday night after Israeli forces, coordinating with US military assets, launched massive strikes targeting Iranian oil infrastructure in and around Tehran. Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported that the Israeli Air Force struck oil storage depots and refinery facilities in Tehran. Israeli officials confirmed that the operation focused on fuel depots and energy infrastructure believed to support Iran’s military operations. Massive fires were reported at storage facilities as explosions rocked parts of Tehran late Saturday.
USA - Breaking: BlackRock just froze $1.2 billion in withdrawal requests at its private credit fund.
Here's what happened:
Two of the biggest funds on the planet are limiting how much you can take out. This is a major red flag. Something big is coming.
IRAN - Defiant Iran hardliners rejoiced this morning as Ali Khamenei's son was named the new Supreme Leader - while vowing to increase missile attacks on infrastructure. Mojtaba Khamenei, excluded from a list of three senior clerics his father reportedly identified last year, was on Sunday announced as the Ayatollah's successor after being appointed by the regime's 88-person assembly. The leader has strong links to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and was chosen by Iran's Assembly of Experts 'under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards', according to Iranian media. 'The governments of Islamic countries are expected to warn the criminal America and the savage Zionist regime of such cowardly, inhumane actions as soon as possible,' Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for Iran's central military command told state TV. 'Otherwise, similar measures will be taken in the region, and if you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game.'
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The views expressed in this section are not our own, unless specifically stated, but are provided to highlight what may prove to be prophetically relevant material appearing in the media.