The party claims to have won 52.5 per cent of votes cast, based on a count of 97.6 per cent of the country’s 13,100 polling stations. Khaled Qazzaz, a Muslim Brotherhood official, said Shafik had 47.5 per cent of the votes counted. "There is no way Shafik can win," Qazzaz said, speaking at the headquarters of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party. The party’s website says it will shortly announce "the first statement of the first elected Egyptian president."

Approximately 50 million Egyptians are eligible to vote, but the turnout appears to be lower than in the first round, when 46 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots. Over 20 million votes have been counted so far, Qazzaz said, with around 10.5 million going to Mursi, compared to 9.5 million for Shafiq.

At the same time, there are numerous accusations of ballot-rigging from the rival candidate’s headquarters, where officials say they do not recognize the results announced by their rivals. "We are expecting the official results from the electoral commission,” Shafiq’s representative told the Egyptian Al-Hayat network.

The Socialist Party (PF) has won 300 seats, surpassing the 289 seats required for total control of the 577-member National Assembly after Sunday's run-off. Nicolas Sarkozy's center-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) secured 207 seats. France's far-right National Front has returned to parliament for the first time since 1998, according to AFP reports, but its anti-immigrant and anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen has lost her bid for a seat by a handful of votes.

The outcome of both rounds of France’s parliamentary elections suggests that President Francois Hollande will now be able to implement his tax-and-spend policy with relative ease. But how likely is it that he can achieve economic growth instead of belt-tightening?

The first two blasts occurred within minutes of each other and targeted two churches in the city of Zaria in Kaduna state. A third blast hit a church in the city of Kaduna about half an hour later, said Kaduna State police chief Mohammed Abubakar Jinjiri.

He also said security at the three churches had prevented the suicide bombers from ramming explosive-filled cars into the buildings, which were filled with worshippers and thus would have caused significantly more casualties. It was the latest in a string of Christian-Muslim clashes in the state of Kaduna, which is known for its religious tensions.

Forty-four senators, both Republicans and Democrats, have addressed [Mr] Barack Obama in a letter stating that Iran must immediately take steps to shut down the Fordow facility, freeze the enrichment of uranium above 5 per cent and ship uranium already enriched above 5 per cent out of the country.

“On the other hand, if the sessions in Moscow produce no substantive agreement, we urge you to re-evaluate the utility of further talks at this time and instead focus on significantly increasing the pressure on the Iranian government through sanctions and making clear that a credible military option exists,” the senators stressed. “As you have rightly noted, ‘the window for diplomacy is closing.’ Iran’s leaders must realize that you mean precisely that.”

The third round of the negotiations between Iran and five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, known as P5+1, is scheduled to start in the Russian capital on Monday. The world powers will try to ease the tensions and secure an agreement to prevent a pre-emptive military strike against Iran by Israel. The negotiations come less than two weeks before Iran faces the imposition of a European oil embargo and American banking sanctions which could severely damage its economy.

The delegation from the Syrian Free Army is meeting with US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and the State Department’s expert on Syria, Fred Hof, according to a report by debkafile, an Israeli news website, which is considered to have strong ties with the intelligence community.

The Syrian rebels have brought with them two lists for American approval. One is that of targets in Syria they want to attack to hurt President Assad’s government. The second is a list of heavy weapons they need to carry out the attacks, which they want to get from the US, the report says. Debkafile says the Obama administration is very close to giving the green light to shipping off the weapons, most of which have already been purchased by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The US is also close to deciding on the format of its own military operation in Syria, which the site’s source described as “Libya lite” – a small-scale version of the no-fly zone and air strikes carried out by NATO forces in Libya, which resulted in the toppling of its leader, Muammar Gaddafi. Earlier top US military brass told American media that the Pentagon has finalized contingency plans for a possible operation in Syria.

A German-Saudi contract for purchase of some 300 brand new modern tanks was on the table since at least last year. Hover the Gulf monarchy wants more hardware, Bild newspaper reports. There is still resistance in the German federal government to selling military hardware to Saudis. The Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry both oppose it due to security and human rights considerations.

The Economy Ministry advocates the deal, which would give a boost to domestic defense producers Krauss-Maffei Wegman and Rheinmetall, especially as the demand for armor from the German army shrinks with its ongoing restructuring. The initial contract for 300 tanks is already ready for signing, but still requires consent from a council of eight German ministers and the Federal Chancellor, who has to approve any export of military technology from the country. So far Germany was reluctant to sell heavy arms to the Gulf nations.

Bild says Spanish firm General Dynamic/Santa Barbara would produce the tanks under a license, if the deal is finally given the green light. Saudis would like to have it sealed before the holy month of Ramadan starts on July 20.

At his city-centre shop near the town hall, Dimitrios Kalkantzakos is one of the few Athens retailers seeing a boom in sales: up 60 per cent in the last year, he says. Mr Kalkantzakos sells guns. "People don't know what's going to happen," he said. "They're afraid." The street corners are stocked with waiting riot police. One of the few global currency trading platforms which operates at the weekend, Oanda, is closing today for the first time in its history.

This is the election that is supposed to decide whether Greece stays in the euro. Yet as it, and Europe, face what could be their Katrina moment, the dominant sense here is not of panic, or fear, or even hope - but of a country in suspended animation, grinding to a halt. The Athens Heart shopping centre, in the southern suburbs, is polished, full of big brands, and almost totally empty of customers. "We've had five sales all day," says Steryiani Vlachakou, the assistant in the Champion sportswear store. "It's been getting a lot, lot worse."

Nobody is buying anything. Nobody is selling anything. No bank is lending anyone money. The normal processes of commerce have slowed down or stopped. And even the election campaign isn't stirring the passions you'd expect. "From Monday, Greece is going to start working again," orated Alexis Tsipras, the leader of hard-left Syriza, at his final rally in Omonia Square last week. "The bankrupt memorandum [EU bailout agreement] becomes the past. On Sunday, with your vote in your hand, you are going to change your life. We can change the course of history!"

PRO-REFORM PARTIES WIN - Likelihood 5 out of 10

The centre-right "pro-European" New Democracy party emerges as front-runner but there is no outright winner. It forges a "national salvation" government with the socialist Pasok party, which also backs reforms in return for rescue funds from the EU, ECB and IMF. The coalition commits to the conditions of the latest €130 biliion bailout and terms are eased. Short-term stability could lead to more prevarication by Germany's Angela Merkel in dealing with greater EU fiscal unity. By delaying the crucial decisions, the eurozone staggers towards the next crisis.

WEAK PRO-EUROPE GOVERNMENT - Likelihood 8 out of 10

Reform-minded "pro-European" forces win power but by a slight margin. A government is formed, but is constantly undermined by anti-bailout far-left Syriza party which becomes bold as opposition grows on the streets. The government falls in the autumn when called to pass further belt-tightening measures. The EU, ECB and IMF are encouraged by some to turn off the cash tap at Greeks' failure to honour austerity pledges. A possible contagious collapse in confidence across Europe threatens UK with a two-year recession as trade with the continent dries up.

VICTORY FOR RADICALS - Likelihood 5 out of 10

Anti-austerity forces led by Syriza party emerge as the frontrunner. Syriza forms a government with Pasok and the Democratic Left. Another possible coalition partner is the populist rightwing Independent Greeks party after the orthodox KKE communist party rebuffs its overtures. Greece is on a collision course with foreign lenders as the government puts a brake on the EU-IMF dictated austerity and structural reform programme. Chaos erupts when creditors withhold loans and Greece is forced to declare bankruptcy. If Greece leaves the euro, Germany could be jolted into action and pursue fiscal unity in Europe, smothering any panic among other states. If the Germans don't act, it could lead to an economic armageddon.

POLITICAL DEADLOCK - Likelihood 2 out of 10

Neither New Democracy nor Syriza win enough votes to form a coalition government. After weeks of negotiations, it is announced that fresh elections must be held. The ECB, IMF and EU have no one to negotiate with. A disorderly default is likely as creditors lose patience.

As Greek voters go to the polls in elections that could determine the future of the eurozone, Zoellick told the Observer he was advising emerging nations to ready themselves for the consequences of events in the single-currency area.

The election of an anti-austerity government would spark the most serious crisis for the euro so far, following the apparent failure of a Spanish bank bailout last week. German chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday ruled out renegotiating Greece's bailout, saying the country must stick to its deals with international lenders. Unofficial polls suggest the conservative New Democracy party is ahead of the anti-austerity Syriza by four percentage points — though as much as 15% of the electorate remains undecided.

As all eyes focus on Athens, Zoellick said: "Europe may be able to muddle through but the risk is rising." He added: "There could be a Lehmans moment if things are not properly handled." The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 proved to be the trigger for the deepest slump in the global economy since the 1930s, and Zoellick said developing countries needed to "prepare for the uncertainty coming out of the eurozone and the wider financial markets". He added: "It will be better if they can avoid piling up short-term debts that can come due in volatile periods and look to the fundamentals of future growth – infrastructure and human capital."

Joanna Stavropoulos is not proud of what she has done. "I had a guilty conscience when I withdrew my money from Greece," says the 43-year-old. Of course she knew what would happen if everybody does the same: Greece's banks would be threatened with collapse. But she says she had to think of her two-month-old daughter, Josephina, who is currently asleep on Joanna's shoulder. Increasing numbers of Greeks are following Joanna Stavropoulos' example and emptying their accounts. They are afraid that Greece may leave the euro zone and return to the drachma.

Stavropoulos is one of the few people who know very well what this scenario would look like in concrete terms. As a journalist and NGO worker, she has traveled all over the world, most recently in Haiti and Iraq. "I have been to countries where banks closed," she says.

She was in Argentina, for example, when the government declared a national default. She has also lived in Zimbabwe, where three-digit inflation destroyed the currency. Joanna is sure that Greece could face the same thing if it returns to the drachma.

"My country is going downhill," she says. There is still little sign of panic in Greece, and there has not been a stampede to the banks. Nevertheless, people are withdrawing hundreds of millions of euros from the banks every day. In May alone, outflows totaled €5 billion. According to official figures, €80 BILLION HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN SINCE THE START OF THE CRISIS.

Stavropoulos and her friends have a new strategy to deal with their daily expenses. "We charge everything to our credit cards," she says. If the Greek banks fail, they won't be able to collect the outstanding debts, she argues. "If they want to mess me around, I will do the same to them."

Finally, there is clarity. The Holy See has cleared things up and made the document accessible to all: a handout on checking whether apparitions of the Virgin Mary are authentic. Everything will be much easier from now on. The Roman Catholic Church has taken a step forward.

This "breaking news" from the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) reveals the kinds of issues the Vatican is concerned with - and the kind of world in which some there live. It's a world in which the official Church investigation of Virgin Mary sightings is carefully regulated while cardinals in the Roman Curia, the Vatican's administrative and judicial apparatus, wield power with absolutely no checks and the pope's private correspondence turns up in the desk drawers of a butler.

It's a completely different apparition of the Virgin Mary that has pulled the Vatican and the Catholic Church into a new crisis, whose end and impact can only be surmised: the appearance of a source in the heart of the Church, a conspiracy against the pope and a leak code-named "Maria." Since the end of May, the pope's former butler, Paolo Gabriele, has been detained in a 35-square-meter (377-square-foot) cell at the Vatican, with a window but no TV. Using the code name "Maria," he allegedly smuggled faxes and letters out of the pope's private quarters. But it remains unclear who was directing him to do so.

Even with Gabriele's arrest, the leak still hasn't been plugged. More documents were released to the public last week, documents intended primarily to damage two close associates of Pope Benedict XVI: his private secretary, Georg Gänswein, and Cardinal Secretary of State Tarcisio Bertone, the Vatican's top administrator. According to one document, "hundreds" of other secret documents would be published if Gänswein and Bertone weren't "kicked out of the Vatican." "This is blackmail," says Vatican expert Marco Politi. "It's like threatening total war."

Fear is running rampant in the Curia, where the mood has rarely been this miserable. It's as if someone had poked a stick into a beehive. Men wearing purple robes are rushing around, hectically monitoring correspondence. No one trusts anyone anymore, and some even hesitate to communicate by phone. It all began in the accursed seventh year of the papacy of Benedict XVI, with striking parallels to the latter part of Pope John Paul II's papacy. The same complaints about poor leadership and internal divisions are being aired outside the Vatican's walls, while the pope himself seems exhausted and no longer able to exert his power.

One way to look at Alexis Tsipras, the 37-year-old wunderkind of the Greek left, is as the leader of a small yet rapidly growing political party on the edge of Europe - a party that stands to attract some 3 million votes in Sunday's election. Three million votes out of a European Union population of a half billion. Just over half of 1 percent.

There is another way to look at Tsipras, however - as the European politician who, perhaps more than any other, holds the fate of the European common currency in his hands. It is this second interpretation that has the entire world gazing with fear as Greeks head to the polls this weekend. Tsipras, after all, has promised Greece that he will abandon the deep austerity measures imposed by the EU in exchange for bailout aid - with Brussels threatening to suspend those payments, and send Athens into bankruptcy, should he do so. It is a game of political chicken that could bring down Europe.

Central banks around the world are preparing for the potential financial earthquake that could accompany a victory of Tsipras' Syriza party. Reuters reports on Friday that central banks in Britain, Canada, Japan, China and India are all working on contingency plans or have said they are prepared to take measures to counter any financial market turbulence that could result from the vote.

European Central Bank head Mario Draghi said on Friday that the ECB is ready to provide further liquidity to euro-zone banks. "The ECB has the crucial role of providing liquidity to sound bank counterparties in return for adequate collateral," he said. "This is what we have done throughout the crisis … and this is what we will continue to do."

With the EU sovereign debt crisis worsening and growing fears for the global economy, the deep divisions within Opec risk undermining the organisation’s ability to do its job of effectively managing oil supply and preventing violent price swings. A person familiar with the matter said Opec’s meeting in Vienna on Thursday was overshadowed by “strong disagreements” over issues ranging from the acceptable price of oil, to the global supply-demand balance, to who should replace the current secretary general of the organisation.

A particular bone of contention was a proposal by Venezuela – backed by other Opec hardliners like Iran, Iraq and Algeria – that the group should protest against the EU sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear programme. The move was rebuffed by Saudi Arabia and other moderates including Nigeria, Libya and Kuwait, who argued that such protests were the preserve of foreign ministers, not oil ministers.

Riyadh is determined to prevent the group being dragged into Iran’s nuclear standoff with the west, and until Thursday, member states had done a good job of papering over their differences on the issue. “We have to make sure that Opec remains non-political,” said a Saudi official. “It is a business organisation and politics should be avoided.”

But the latest bust-up shows it could prove increasingly difficult to maintain that neutrality, with the issue of sanctions reinforcing already deep divisions between hardliners Iran, Venezuela and Algeria and moderates like Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies Kuwait and the UAE. The politicisation of Opec bodes ill for the future. “Oil and politics make a really toxic mix, as we saw with Opec in the 1970s,” said one analyst. He said the rift meant it would be harder for Opec to take “concerted action in the event of a major bout of price weakness”.

Riding a wave of anger to rise from obscurity to contender for power, leftist Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, 37, promises to reject the punishing terms of the €130 billion ($163.75 billion) bailout if he wins the nail-biter vote on Sunday. On the right, establishment heir and New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, 61, says that would send Greece crashing out of the single currency and condemn it to even greater economic calamity.

With the election set to go down to the wire, European leaders weighed in on Saturday, urging Greeks to vote with their heads. THE BAILOUT WILL NOT BE RENEGOTIATED, WARNED GERMAN CHANCELLOR ANGELA MERKEL, whose country's wealth is vital to shoring up its weaker partners in the bloc."That's why it's so important that the Greek elections preferably lead to a result in which those that will form a future government say: 'yes, we will stick to the agreements'," Merkel told a party conference of the Christian Democrats.

Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker said there would be serious consequences if Syriza secured victory. "If the radical left wins - which cannot be ruled out - the consequences for the currency union are unforeseeable," Juncker, head of the group of euro zone finance ministers, told Austrian paper Kurier. "We will have to speak to any government. I can only warn everyone against leaving the currency union. THE INTERNAL COHESION OF THE EURO ZONE WOULD BE IN DANGER."

Chief monitor General Robert Mood said the fighting posed a threat to his unarmed observers, one of whose patrols was fired upon four days ago, and prevented them from carrying out their mandate to oversee Annan's widely-ignored April 12 ceasefire.

The Norwegian peacekeeper blamed both government troops and rebels for the relentless conflict, in which President Bashar al-Assad's forces are trying to crush an increasingly well-armed insurgency which grew out of a 15-month-old wave of protests. "There has been an intensification of armed violence across Syria over the past 10 days," Mood said.

"The lack of willingness by the parties to seek a peaceful transition, and the push towards advancing military positions is increasing the losses on both sides." Diplomats say Mood is expected to brief the United Nations Security Council on Monday or Tuesday about the unrest in Syria, which the head of UN peacekeeping said this week was in the throes of full-scale civil war.