Can we relax? Not yet. Chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson says there could be another peak in January or February and, more worrying, THE VIRUS COULD MUTATE. But suppose it does not? Will the WHO have to redefine the term "pandemic virus"? THE ONLY PANDEMIC WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR IS THE ONE AT THE END OF THE VIROLOGISTS' MICROSCOPES. Ok, so it is a completely new flu virus of a kind never seen before – hence its title "Novel H1N1 influenza".

BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO "PANDEMIC", in any clinically relevant sense of the term, anywhere in the world since swine flu first broke out in Mexico last April. We knew it was mild from the beginning but we thought that because it was novel it would spread widely and, even though mild, kill a lot of people by virtue of the sheer numbers infected.

THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. Estimates of the population potentially infected have been reduced from 30 per cent to 10 per cent – the same as for seasonal flu. It has emerged that people aged over 50 have some immunity because, although the virus itself is novel, proteins on its surface are similar in some respects to those on H1N1 viruses circulating up to the 1960s. If it turns out that we have used a sledgehammer to crack a nut, my question is this: HOW DID THE VIROLOGISTS GET THE SCALE OF THE THREAT SO WRONG?

What's become known as "Climate-Gate" may be about to explode on this side of the pond as well. Chris Horner, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, has threatened a lawsuit against NASA if by year-end the agency doesn't honor his FOI requests for information on how and why its climate numbers have been consistently adjusted for errors. "I ASSUME THAT WHAT IS THERE IS HIGHLY DAMAGING," says Horner, who suspects, based on the public record, the same type of data fudging, manipulation and suppression that has occurred at Britain's East Anglia Climate Research Unit. "THESE GUYS (NASA) ARE QUITE CLEARLY DETERMINED NOT TO REVEAL THEIR INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS."

They may have good reason. NASA was caught with its thermometers down when James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, announced that 1998 was the country's hottest year on record, with 2006 the third hottest. NASA AND GODDARD WERE FORCED TO CORRECT THE RECORD IN 2007 to show that 1934, decades before the advent of the SUV, was in fact the warmest. In fact, the new numbers showed that four of the country's 10 warmest years were in the 1930s.

HANSEN, WHO BEGAN THE CLIMATE SCARE SOME TWO DECADES AGO, was caught fudging the numbers again in declaring October 2008 the warmest on record. This despite the fact that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month, and ranked it as only the 70th-warmest October in 114 years.

The three leaders are listed in a line-up of more than 180 government officials published in a United Nations schedule of speakers. Each head of state will have up to three minutes to address roughly 700 delegates, reporters, observers and civil society groups.

The assistant president of Sudan, Nafie Ali Nafie kicks off the speeches at noon on Wednesday. Nafie chairs the G-77 group, a block of developing nations pushing hard for more money and stricter emissions cuts from rich countries. Mostapha Zaher, director-general of Afghanistan's Environmental Protection Agency, is listed as the final speaker. He'll take the podium slightly before 2 am next Friday.

ROUGHLY 110 WORLD LEADERS PLAN TO ATTEND THE TALKS, AN UNPRECEDENTED NUMBER FOR A CLIMATE CONFERENCE. Typically, only a handful of top leaders attend the negotiations. President Barack Obama is expected at the meeting on Friday.

The record increase in the so-called debt limit - the legal cap on the amount of money the government can borrow - IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF $1.8 TRILLION TO $1.9 TRILLION, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Democrat for Maryland, said Friday. That eye-popping figure is making Democrats woozy but is what is needed to make sure they don't have to vote again before next year's midterm elections. The GOVERNMENT'S TOTAL DEBT HAS NEARLY DOUBLED IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS and is expected to exceed the current ceiling of $12.1 trillion before January 1.

If a deal can't be found, Democrats might have to move on to Plan B, which would be to have the Senate pass a smaller, $925 billion increase that's already available to them. That bill passed the House because of a quirky rule that automatically passes debt limit legislation - without an up-or-down vote - when Congress ratifies its annual budget blueprint. That was done last April.

Under the second scenario, the House would adjourn, leaving the Senate no choice but to pass the $925 billion increase in order to avoid a first-ever default on US government obligations. "WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO FACE THE MOMENT OF TRUTH AT SOME POINT," said Senator Evan Bayh, Democrat for Indiana, who is one of about a dozen Senate Democrats pressing for the special deficit task force as the price for voting for an increase in the debt limit.

The Swiss decision has shocked Europe and the world because its ramifications go far beyond the building of minarets -- they also concern the identity of an entire continent. THIS WAS A REFERENDUM ON WESTERN SOCIETY'S PERCEPTION OF ISLAM AS A THREAT. The issue is generating intense debate: Just how much of Islam is predominantly Christian Europe prepared to accept? The decision by the otherwise so tolerant Alpine country reveals THE DEEP-SEATED FEAR OF AN ISLAM that is becoming increasingly visible.

Are Muslim immigrants threatening European values? This is a concern shared by many Europeans across the continent. Surveys last week revealed that 44 percent of Germans oppose the construction of minarets, followed by 41 percent of the French. FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT OF ALL EUROPEANS SEE ISLAM AS AN INTOLERANT RELIGION. Does the Swiss vote reveal an attitude that a majority in Europe would also support if given the opportunity?

THERE ARE WIDESPREAD FEARS IN GERMANY, as illustrated by the example of a church in Duisburg that was recently converted into a mosque. Members of the old church congregation ceremoniously handed over the house of worship to its new owners, "but in the pubs and in private conversations everyone complained that the Muslims were seizing power in Germany," says Rauf Ceylan, a religious studies professor at the University of Osnabrück. HE SAYS THAT MANY GERMANS HAVE A LATENT FEAR OF ISLAM.

The article reports that EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia is now clearly saying that the Commission will only help when there is a "consolidation and reform programme." Eurointelligence reports that the Greek bond spread against German bonds has now reached 250 basis points and cites German Central Bank President Axel Weber saying that there is a risk that Greek bonds might no longer be acceptable collateral at the ECB. It further reports that Greek PM George Papandreou yesterday held an open Cabinet meeting at which he said that the situation threatened Greek sovereignty.

Bloomberg quotes former Bank of England official Willem Buiter warning that GREECE MAY BE THE FIRST EU-15 SOVEREIGN DEBT DEFAULT SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR, adding "IT'S FIVE MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT FOR GREECE". The Guardian reports that the ratings agency Standard & Poor's REVISED ITS OUTLOOK ON SPAIN TO negative and warned that the country faced a risk of a debt downgrade in two years if the government did not take tough action.

Economist Edward Hugh comments on the Fistful of Euros blog: "Rather than acting as a stimulus to deep economic reform, Euro membership has RATHER ACTED TO REWARD THOSE COUNTRIES WHO WOULD GET INTO MORE AND MORE DEBT, with ever less sustainable economic models, by supplying them with funding at far cheaper rates of interest than the markets would otherwise make available."

This is due to a series of cuts in Britain's rebate from the EU budget, of which Tony Blair gave a portion away in 2005 IN EXCHANGE FOR THE 'HEALTH CHECK' ON THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY, which was intended to produce reforms of the programme, but has failed to provide much. Britain's rebate from the EU is worth £5.6billion in 2008/09, £5.1billion in 2009/10, and £3.3billion in 2010/11.

Open Europe Research Director Mats Persson is quoted saying, "The increase in the UK's contribution to the EU budget could hardly come at a worse time. The EU budget represents exceptionally poor value for taxpayers' money - IT'S WASTEFUL, IRRATIONAL AND HOPELESSLY OUT OF DATE. British taxpayers have good reason to be angry about their money being spent on wasteful EU projects rather than on closing the budget deficit or lowering taxes at home."

The main evidence that Mr Balls has made a massive blunder is a chapter in a Hizb ut Tahrir pamphlet, 'Education and Identity', written by one Farah Ahmed. Mrs Ahmed is the head teacher of one of the two schools, and also a trustee of the Islamic Shakhsiyah Foundation (ISF), which runs them both. If I were a Muslim parent, I would not let my child within 20 miles of her. In her chapter 'The Western Education System and the British National Curriculum', MRS AHMED ATTACKS THE RELIGIOUS STUDIES ELEMENTS OF THE NATIONAL CURRICULUM FOR 'PRIMARILY PUSH[ING] ...THE IDEA OF "RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE".' This, she says, 'further aids distancing the Muslim child from THE CONCEPT OF ISLAM BEING THE ONLY REFERENCE POINT.'

She criticises the curriculum's 'systematic indoctrination' of Muslim children 'to build model British citizens' and to 'integrate all individuals into the fabric of secular society and develop them as personalities who uphold the values adopted by the society around them. Naturally,' she says, 'such a system [secular capitalism] will not be suitable to the needs of Muslim students as the aqeedah [belief system] of the Muslim is in complete contradiction to this.' SHE DESCRIBES DEMOCRACY AS A 'CORRUPT TRADITION', and Western education as 'A THREAT TO OUR BELIEFS AND VALUES'.

Mrs Ahmed's words are those of a fanatic: a publicly funded fanatic; a fanatic in charge of more than 100 impressionable children; and a fanatic newly strengthened by her endorsement from Gordon Brown's right hand. Then there is the broader, and very dangerous, tendency in large parts of LIBERAL BRITAIN TO SEE ANY ATTACK ON ANY MUSLIM AS SOMEHOW IMPERMISSIBLE OR A THREAT TO MULTICULTURALISM. But it is Hizb ut Tahrir which is the avowed enemy of multiculturalism — and is just as loathed by most British Muslims as the far right is loathed by most white people.

If BNP supporters were found to be running schools — let alone getting public money — it would rightly be stopped faster than you could say Nick Griffin. Hizb ut Tahrir are the Islamic equivalent of the BNP. YET THE GOVERNMENT DEFENDS THESE SCHOOLS, seeks to make political capital from their defence — and succeeds. That's why this story is so depressing.

A WARTIME PRESIDENT HONORED FOR PEACE, Obama became the first sitting US president in 90 years and the third ever to win the prize - some say prematurely. In this damp, chilly Nordic capital to pick it up, he and his wife, Michelle, whirled through a day filled with Nobel pomp and ceremony.

Just nine days after ordering 30,000 more US troops into battle in Afghanistan, Obama delivered a Nobel acceptance speech that he saw as a treatise on war's use and prevention. In them, Obama refused to renounce war for his nation or under his leadership, saying defiantly that "I face the world as it is" and that he is obliged to protect and defend the United States. "A non-violent movement could not have halted Hitler's armies. Negotiations cannot convince al-Qaida's leaders to lay down their arms," Obama said. "To say that force is sometimes necessary is not a call to cynicism, it is a recognition of history."

In awarding the prize to Obama, the Nobel panel cited his call for a world free of nuclear weapons, for a more engaged US role in combating global warming, for his support of the United Nations and multilateral diplomacy and for broadly capturing the attention of the world and giving its people "hope." But the Nobel committee made its announcement in October when he wasn't even nine months on the job, RECOGNIZING HIS ASPIRATIONS MORE THAN HIS ACHIEVEMENTS.

Gino D'Acampo, the winner of I'm a Celebrity on Friday, and his fellow contestant Stuart Manning face criminal charges for animal cruelty after COOKING AND EATING A RAT on the ITV1 reality show, which enjoyed a ratings renaissance for this year's ninth series. The pair were part of a group in "exile" during part of the series, which meant they had meagre rations of rice and beans. They asked production staff if they could kill a rat and were given the go-ahead.

The RSPCA said it would take action and police have issued "attendance notices" for D'Acampo and Manning to appear in court in New South Wales on February 3. The production was unaware that killing a rat could be an offence, criminal or otherwise, in New South Wales and accepts that further inquiries should have been made – this was an oversight.

Chief Inspector David Oshannessy, of the New South Wales RSPCA, said it was not acceptable that an animal had been killed as part of a performance. "There is a code of conduct in New South Wales that dictates how animals can be used. The killing of a rat for a performance is not acceptable."

Meanwhile, the Coulisses de Bruxelles blog notes that the Spanish EU Presidency, "WISHES TO RESURRECT THE CULT OF SECRECY THAT MARKED THE BEGINNING OF COMMUNITY COOPERATION", citing the fact that the Spanish government is pressing for more secretive Council meetings. It says the Presidency will exclude the press from 'informal' ministerial meetings, TO ALLOW EUROPEAN LEADERS TO FREELY NEGOTIATE.

Traditionally, the 'informal' meetings were an opportunity for EU ministers to meet to get to know each other, particularly whenever a new country took up the rotating EU Presidency. However, notes Quatremer, over time THEY BECAME MORE AND MORE FORMAL AND MINISTERS BEGAN TO TAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS about the agenda for the coming months, despite still being called 'informal' meetings, and the media were slowly allowed more access. However, THE SPANISH GOVERNMENT HAS SAID IT WANTS TO END THE PRESS CONFERENCES AND MEDIA ACCESS TO THE MEETINGS, even though policy will still be decided there.

Business leaders and economists urged the Chancellor not to raise taxes and cut spending too soon for fear of snuffing out the recovery and driving the UK back into recession. THE UK WAS THE WORLD'S FOURTH-LARGEST ECONOMY IN 2005 but was overtaken by China in 2006, France in 2008 and Italy this year.

Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the CEBR, said: "In a decade, the UK could have dropped from being number four in the world to being outside the top 10."

France is holding the meeting because it wants to mobilise supporters of the CAP before negotiations kick off next year about the EU's next budgetary period from 2014 to 2020.

The article quotes French Agriculture Minister Bruno Le Maire saying, "FRANCE IS THE BIGGEST AGRICULTURAL POWER IN EUROPE and it is not illegitimate for it to reflect on this and associate all other member states that want a strong CAP. If the UK ever wanted to join us and sign an appeal for a strong CAP, it would be welcome."

THE UK WANTS TO PHASE OUT ALL MARKET PRICE SUPPORT and all direct payments to farmers by 2020 but a majority of member states favour retaining the status quo.

It suggest that, with a capacity of 3,000,000 tons of steel, closure of the plant will deliver "savings" of over 6 MILLION TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE, worth £80 million per annum at current rates but around £200 million at expected market levels.

It further argues that by "offshoring" production to India and bringing emissions down - from over twice the EU level - to the level currently produced by the Redcar plant, Tata stands to make another £200 million per annum FROM THE UN'S CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. It argues, "Indian plants being paid up to £30 a ton for each ton of carbon dixoide 'saved' by building [a] new plant, while the company which owns them also gets paid £30 for each ton of carbon dioxide not produced in its Redcar plant."

That gives it an estimated £400 million a year from the closure of the Redcar plant up to 2012 - POTENTIALLY UP TO £1.2 BILLION. And that is over and above BENEFITING FROM CHEAPER PRODUCTION COSTS on the sub-continent.

Asked whether that meant more regulation, he said there would be "MORE GOVERNANCE AND REGULATION WHERE NEEDED". In the interview with France 24 Barnier tried to smooth over the City's concerns saying, "I will not take orders from Paris any more than I would from London or Berlin". World Politics Review quotes Open Europe saying that Barnier's appointment was "bad news" for the City.

Meanwhile, the Irish Independent reports that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that the EU needed new tools to ensure authorities can intervene swiftly in case of the failure of a systemically important financial institution. In a speech to the Paris Appeals Court, he said a legal framework should be designed that should be solid enough that it is not contested by shareholders "but sufficiently flexible to give discretion to authorities".