In some cases, these efforts resulted in humiliating defeats; in others, they barely clung to power, but at great reputational cost. The liberal democratic model, once cherished by the United States and Western Europe, now stands weakened and questioned.

This reckoning in the West has had ripple effects elsewhere. Post-Soviet countries, long looking to the West for security and direction, are now reevaluating their options. The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that neither America nor Western Europe will fight for them. For many, the lesson is clear: they must seek alternative guarantees for their safety.

The Middle East in ruins. In the Middle East, 2024 was catastrophic. International institutions failed to act decisively, hamstrung by the political paralysis of their Western patrons. The “axis of resistance,” led by Iran, has crumbled. Tehran’s regime is in survival mode, while regional power is shifting toward Israel and Turkey. Israel’s ongoing military actions in southern Syria and threats against Iran suggest the region is far from stable. Meanwhile, Turkey’s efforts to control post-Assad Syria face growing challenges. Without a unifying authority, Syria risks becoming a fragmented hotbed of terrorism, threatening global security.

If 2024 was the year of a global tipping point, 2025 promises to be one of opportunity – and peril. The key story will likely be attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. With political climates shifting, both the West and Russia have an opportunity to restart dialogue. However, this will require immense political will and compromise. Failure could lead to further escalation or a prolonged stalemate.

As the old world order crumbles, the outlines of something new are beginning to take shape. What exactly that will look like remains uncertain. One thing is clear: the political and economic shifts of 2024 have set the stage for a year of dramatic opportunities and risks. For better or worse, 2025 is here.