USA - Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, is frantically trying to cap rates. France may be about to trigger a fresh eurozone crisis. And here in Britain, John Healey, the new Chancellor, is facing what his predecessor would no doubt have described as a “black hole” in the public finances. As bond yields – the cost of borrowing – rise relentlessly, so far all the attention has focused on the effect on hugely indebted governments. But the crisis is about to ripple out into the real economy – and, unfortunately, that will prove a lot more serious. That will hurt in three main ways. To start with, mortgage rates are starting to rise. The average five-year fixed rate hit 6 percent in Britain this week, and is still climbing. In reality, we may soon face a steep downturn in the property market, a collapse in bank lending, and plenty of over-indebted companies running into trouble, with some even forced to close. Worst of all, that will reduce tax revenues even further, forcing the Government to increase borrowing, which will push rates even higher. The economy will be trapped in a vicious cycle from which there will be no easy escape.
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