GERMANY - Germany’s defence minister has called for the AfD to be banned, marking the most direct intervention yet by a senior government minister against the Right-wing populist party. Boris Pistorius called for the “initiation of a prohibition proceeding as soon as possible” against parts of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). His intervention comes a week before a crucial election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD is predicted to win an outright majority. Mr Pistorius, routinely ranked as Germany’s most popular politician in opinion polls, said the AfD in much of former East Germany was “völkisch” (“folk” or “popular”) and espoused values incompatible with the German constitution. He distinguished, however, between the party’s völkisch wing and a “German nationalist” faction, which he said advocated “highly dangerous” policies such as leaving the EU but was not undemocratic. Germany is unusual among Western democracies in having constitutional provisions allowing political parties to be banned if they seek to undermine the fundamental principles of the constitution.

USA - The United States has threatened to oppose Britain’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands if Andy Burnham does not increase defence spending, The Telegraph can reveal. The proposal is among measures being drawn up by senior defence officials at the Pentagon as an incentive to hit NATO’s 5 per cent spending pledge. The discourse from Washington will concern Mr Burnham and John Healey, his Chancellor, whose first Budget will fail to commit to spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence by 2030. When he quit as defence secretary in June, Mr Healey claimed that Sir Keir was “unable” and the Treasury “unwilling” to spend the money needed to defend the country. However, government sources told the Financial Times that the Chancellor would not make any commitments relating to the 3 per cent figure in his Budget on October 28.

MIDDLE EAST - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei released a written statement on Sunday urging Gulf rulers to "identify their real enemy and understand the plans to confront it." Khamenei's message, issued in commemoration of the birth anniversary of Prophet Muhammad, also called for "unity among Muslims" and mutual defense against their enemies. "The Muslims’ unity in the face of the world’s disbelief is a Quranic strategy and a basic teaching of the pure Islam of Prophet Muhammad, not a superficial or transient matter," Khamenei wrote in his statement. Last Tuesday, Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi published a message saying that "Iran’s commitment to peace and stability is matched by steadfast diplomacy with our neighbors." Later on Friday, the Iranian FM said that he had met Qatar's Foreign Minister, adding that "putting diplomacy back on track isn't impossible." "It hinges on US understanding of one simple fact: pressure doesn't work. The US should build trust, speak respectfully, acknowledge our rights, and uphold commitments," Araghchi claimed.

ISRAEL - The Knesset will be asked over the coming month, meeting in special recess session, to vote on expansion of the defense budget for urgent IDF weapons procurement from NIS 70 billion to NIS 90 billion (a rise from $20 billion to $25 billion). This will push the annual defense budget to NIS 184 billion (approximately $61 billion). Israel’s long-term military buildup plan has grown by about NIS 50 billion ($17 billion) in just one year. And over the next decade, the military budget is expected to double yet still. There is currently no identified full funding source for these enormous defense expenses. Ultimately, Israel will have to cut the budget of other ministries and impose new taxes. There is no choice. The war with Iran and its proxies is far from over. In fact, 2027 is shaping up as a year of continued military conflict on all fronts – against Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Only God knows what kind of instability Israel may yet have to overcome on its eastern border, and the West Bank is unsettled too. Turkey is threatening Israel as well.

ISRAEL - Turkish presence in Syria poses threat to Israel due to Ankara’s NATO combat doctrine, expert warns. "What we saw about a week ago... is essentially a red line, an Israeli declaration that Israel does not want to see any kind of Turkish presence in central Syria," said Dr Eitan Hai Cohen. According to Cohen, Israeli strikes in Syria were intended to send a clear message to Ankara. "What we saw about a week ago with the Israeli bombing, and also last year in April, is essentially a red line, an Israeli declaration that Israel does not want to see any kind of Turkish presence in central Syria," he emphasized. "We do not want to see them in southern Syria, Turkish penetration; we are not interested in seeing this." He said he hopes the message will also be understood in Washington.

USA - There was no doubting the drama of CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow last week, swooping in on board a military jet. No attempt was made to do it covertly, and within hours there were details being briefed out: it was to deliver a warning to Russia not to attack NATO countries; it was to relay a “bleak” assessment of the state of the war against Ukraine and urge Vladimir Putin to make a deal to end the fighting. “We’re in a very dangerous situation,” Lord Ricketts, Britain’s national security adviser between 2010 and 2012 told me, of the potential for Russian escalation. “To send [Ratcliffe] there in a way that was intended to become public was itself a signal, a warning.” The most noteworthy previous visit of this kind, by William Burns, the CIA director under President Biden, in 2021, was not publicly acknowledged at the time. He told the Russian president that the United States had fully uncovered Russia’s plan to invade Ukraine — although this failed to deter Putin from going ahead and doing it anyway.

ESTONIA - No country understands the dangers of being a neighbour of Russia more acutely than Estonia, which endured five decades of Soviet, then Nazi and then, again, Soviet occupation before regaining its independence in 1991. The nation has been reborn as an increasingly prosperous democracy with, since 2004, membership of both NATO and the EU. Yet Putin’s burning ambition to re-establish the Russian empire casts a long shadow. Estonia is the smallest of the three Baltic states, both in population (1.3 million) and land area (17,500 square miles, just over half the size of Scotland), and it has the longest border with Russia (180 miles). That perilous combination means that if Putin were to seek a new target after – or perhaps during – his onslaught against Ukraine, then Estonia could be in his crosshairs, and there have been plenty of warnings recently about the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO. If the Russians were to strike across the border, then Britain, too, would be at war. Estonia is a NATO ally and 1,000 British troops lead a multinational battlegroup in the country, amounting to the Army’s biggest overseas deployment.

USA - Unannounced, the US Navy temporarily relocated 5th Fleet headquarters to Tampa in Florida where it is now likely to remain, The Times understands. The future of NSA Bahrain is now in question. The CSIS analysed satellite images to calculate the cost of Iranian strikes on 122 structures across 12 main bases.

USA - “We believe that in order to survive and indeed thrive, NATO must change," US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby told ambassadors representing NATO countries. The Pentagon’s policy chief told NATO members on Thursday that the alliance must adapt and that he wants to hear from allies as part of a review of US forces in Europe he said was meant to enable a more European-led defense of the continent. Colby also praised progress within the alliance and said that Europe remains a critical area for the US. “Consultations and engagement are a vital part of this review,” he said. “We want to hear from you”. Diplomats described the discussion with the Pentagon policy chief as positive but preliminary. The meeting “went pretty well and showed allied efforts and contributions to the burden shifting are on the way,” said a NATO diplomat. A European diplomat described the discussion as “mainly sounding out” and said “the overall message from Allies was quite clear: Europe is stepping up and unity is key."

UK - There is a free speech crisis in Britain, and, at long last, people on both the Right and Left can see it. A poll this week found that the majority of the British public during Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership lost confidence in the government to defend their right to express themselves freely. It is an astounding measure of just how tangible censorship has become to the general public. These days, you’re far more likely to hear someone say “you can’t say that!” than “it’s a free country”. Police now arrest around 22 people a day for speech offences – but only an estimated 16 people for fraud.