USA - Conservative journalist Tucker Carlson has warned that the world is on the brink of a global conflict that could end with the use of nuclear weapons. Carlson argues that the US is already effectively at war with Russia through Ukraine and warns that further escalation risks a nuclear confrontation. The Ukraine conflict and the US-Israeli war on Iran “have merged into a global war,” he argued, warning that the confrontation now risks the very existence of the US. Carlson also accuses the Trump administration of abandoning the agenda it campaigned on, saying President Donald Trump and his advisers have “almost systematically betrayed the people who voted for him in 2024.” He called this “the greatest betrayal that I’m aware of in the history of American politics.”

MIDDLE EAST - Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange's benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have jumped to nearly $1 million a day. The jump in tanker rates comes as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea falls further under the control of Iran-backed Houthi rebels, while the Strait of Hormuz remains highly contested, an indication that two critical maritime chokepoints are under severe threat. The squeeze on shipping costs extends beyond the Persian Gulf area, with VLCCs traveling from Oman to China costing $571,000 a day, even though Oman’s ports sit outside Hormuz. That is roughly 10 times last year’s average. For buyers seeking alternative supplies in the Gulf of America, shipping crude from the US Gulf to China now adds about $18 a barrel. The freight surge signals that crude oil and refined products continue to flow but are becoming increasingly costly to transport out of the Gulf region to global markets.

YEMEN - The Houthi rebels have seized Perim, the small island in the narrowest part of the Bab el-Mandeb (“the Gate of Tears”), the southern entrance to the Red Sea. On its own, this is not a big deal. The strait is so narrow there that holding the island does not change the basic geometry: anything passing through has been within reach of missiles and drones fired from the mainland for nearly three years. How they got it is perhaps more interesting. The indications are that Yemeni government forces withdrew without putting up a fight, and that matters.

UK - In the earliest days of the telephone, saying “Hello?” was discouraged. Victorian adopters of the telephone – all eight of them – were instructed simply to lift the receiver to their ear and wait in frigid silence for the caller to explain themselves. Lately, I have been answering the phone like a Victorian. Except a lot more frequently. My mobile rings about 50 times a day, from unknown numbers registered all over the place – Manchester, Birmingham, even the Orkneys – but there’s never anyone on the line.

UK - The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will gather on Monday to sign a deal designed to kick-start the break-up of the United Kingdom, The Telegraph can disclose. At an unprecedented summit in Cardiff, the three first ministers will put pen to paper on a joint declaration demanding the right to hold independence referendums. The meeting comes after Andy Burnham suggested to MPs that he would authorise another Scottish referendum if there were a “clear consensus” in favour of one.

UK - If you aren’t alarmed yet, you should be. Everything bad is escalating. Each ratchet upwards brings the heightened prospect of calamity. The planet’s two major wars are escalating. Russia and Ukraine are preparing for another dark winter. The war in Iran, a misconceived act of hubris compounded by inept prosecution, sees Washington and Tehran locked in a race against time whose logic impels more war. Don’t expect Russia and China to stand by as that happens. Diplomatic tensions are escalating. Tensions between the West and Israel are escalating. Economic tensions are escalating.

GERMANY - A hard-Left party in Germany has entered talks with the AfD about helping it to form a government in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a populist Left-wing party, announced it would enter co-operation talks with Alternative for Germany (AfD). The BSW, which shares some of the AfD’s views on mass migration and Russia, said it would hold discussions on “education, peace and energy supply policies”. BSW officials have ruled out a formal coalition with the AfD but are open to an informal agreement where they help the hard-Right party to govern and pass legislation. The BSW party, which was founded in 2024, took 5.3 per cent of the vote and five seats. Much like the AfD, BSW opposes military support for Ukraine, wants to end sanctions on Russia and hopes to resume imports of cheap Russian gas. Both parties also campaign against mass migration to Germany.

MIDDLE EAST - Intense fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi insurgents and forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of Yemen continued on Wednesday, with a focus on controlling Red Sea coastal territory needed by the Houthis to threaten shipping in the Red Sea at Iran’s behest. “Clashes and attacks were reported in the western provinces of Taiz, Al-Bayda, Al-Dhale and Al-Hudaydah, while government reinforcements were sent to the strategic western coastal city of Mokha near the Bab al-Mandab Strait,” Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported on Wednesday. Much of the fighting was done by the “Giants Brigade,” also known as the Southern Giants Brigade, a coalition of about 15,000 fighters in Yemen who have been loyal to the government throughout the long Yemeni civil war. The Giants Brigade is regarded as an elite group within the Yemeni National Resistance Coalition, the broader designation for pro-government fighters in Yemen. Founded in 2015, most members of the brigade are tribal fighters who loathe the Houthis. They have received training and funding from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

YEMEN - Yemen’s Houthi rebels have seized a key Red Sea port city, tightening their grip on one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes and posing a fresh threat to global trade. The fall of Mokha – the historic coffee-trading hub that gave mocha its name – followed days of fierce ground battles with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, in a war that has reignited since early July. The city is located less than 50 miles from Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow passage at the southern mouth of the Red Sea through which much of the world’s oil and trade flows towards the Suez Canal. Jubilant Iran-backed Houthis entered Mokha early on Thursday aboard Toyota pickup trucks with rifles raised, chanting “Death to America, death to Israel”.

MIDDLE EAST - Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are aiming to drag Saudi Arabia into another conflict as they fight for control of the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait that accounts for almost 15 per cent of maritime trade. The group has attacked Israel, US ships and commercial traffic in the Red Sea over the past three years, but it has now focused its fire on Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, it launched a massive barrage of missiles against Saudi towns and energy infrastructure, forcing the shutdown of several oil installations. The fighting has unravelled a 2022 truce between the rebels, who control north Yemen, and a Saudi-led military coalition that fought a devastating war that left hundreds of thousands dead, many from disease and famine. “Bab al-Mandeb, that’s the real strategic real estate here,” said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert and fellow with the New America think tank. “The Houthis are aiming to consolidate their control on the Red Sea.”