USA - The last California-bound oil tanker to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since war erupted is at the Port of Long Beach offloading its valuable cargo — 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. In two weeks, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker will have fully unloaded at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and departed again for distant waters. After that, California must figure out how to replace some 200,000 barrels of oil a day that will no longer be arriving from the Persian Gulf. Now, with the end of the Middle East conflict nowhere in sight and the average cost of California gasoline topping $6 per gallon, some lawmakers are warning of potential oil and gas shortages.

USA - Corporate media is talking about the disruption of oil supplies due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but, except for The Telegraph, hasn’t said a word about the disruption to global helium supplies. The world has lost 40% of its helium supply since the start of the conflict in the Gulf, primarily due to supply disruptions from Qatar and Russia. The country most reliant on imported helium is China. Helium is a crucial component in the production of advanced AI chips and semiconductors. Qatar, which normally supplies a third of the world’s helium (a by-product of natural gas production at its giant North Field), has not shipped any helium since the Iranian conflict began, and Vladimir Putin’s ban on helium exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union has further exacerbated the shortage.

UK - The Royal Navy's fleet of frigates was reduced to just five today after the withdrawal of HMS Iron Duke - while the Army has 'no money to buy weapons'. The warship is to be retired due to technical issues just three years after a £103 million refit. HMS Iron Duke has suffered technical issues since 2017. Since then more than 1.7 million man-hours have been spent in a bid to salvage her. The shocking catalogue of issues with the frigate drained the Royal Navy's budget at a time of unprecedented concern about the UK's defence capabilities.

MIDDLE EAST - The announcement that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is a further blow to a cartel whose grip on international oil markets is weakening. Opec countries, led by Saudi Arabia, hold around 80 per cent of global oil reserves but produce only about 40 per cent of supply. Some of that reflects deliberate attempts to support prices, but much of it is due to the fact that several members lack the capacity to produce more. Within Opec, the UAE was the second-largest producer. The UAE has invested heavily both in its production capacity and the infrastructure that allows it to bypass the strategic bottleneck of the Strait of Hormuz. And it does not appreciate being prevented by Saudi Arabia from monetising this investment.

IRAN - Tehran continues to condition any discussion of its nuclear program on ending the war, lifting the blockade, and the withdrawal of US forces, meaning the core obstacle remains unresolved. “I don’t think they want the war to resume,” Zimmt continued. “It may be that Iran believes it must retain certain nuclear capabilities to allow for a future breakout to nuclear weapons. But beyond the fact that they are not willing to give up these strategic assets to prevent war, they likely have not yet reached the level of pain required to force them to concede. They are still willing to bear the very high economic cost of the naval blockade without agreeing to discuss the nuclear issue, which appears to be holding up any potential agreement with the Americans.” “For now, according to most oil experts I know, Iran likely has the capacity to withstand the naval blockade for at least several more weeks, and beyond that it becomes a matter of decision-making.”

GERMANY - Six days ago, in Marsberg, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the US approach to Iran, saying Washington was being “humiliated by the Iranian leadership” and demanding the conflict end “as quickly as possible.” Three days ago, President Trump responded with an announcement that US troops in Germany would be drawn down, and there would be a 25% tariff on all imported European autos. Suddenly, Friedrich Merz reverses his position: When people argue that it’s not about the economics of the thing – remind them, IT’S ALWAYS ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF THE THING.

MIDDLE EAST - The United States will launch an effort on Monday to “guide” stranded ships from the Iran-gripped Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said, as two ships around the strait reported attacks. Trump gave few details about what could be a sweeping attempt to help hundreds of vessels and some 20,000 seafarers. Iran quickly denounced the move as a ceasefire violation. Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that “neutral and innocent” countries have been affected by the Iran war, and “we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.” “Project Freedom” would begin on Monday morning in the Middle East, Trump said, adding that his representatives are having discussions with Iran that could lead to something “very positive for all.”

IRAN - Iran has proposed a one-month deadline to permanently end the war with the US and open the Strait of Hormuz. The latest deal submitted by Tehran to Donald Trump via mediators in Pakistan would leave the issue of its nuclear capabilities unresolved until after agreement has been met on other issues. The proposal arrived as oil analysts warned that a “tipping point” in global crude oil reserves would be hit by the end of May, threatening to send prices soaring in the summer. The 14-point plan would require both sides to lift their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, completely end the war in Lebanon, and release Iran’s frozen assets. It would also require the US to pay compensation and lift sanctions against Tehran. Iran has proposed a deadline of a month for the two sides to reach an agreement on a permanent end to the war. Only in a second stage would the two sides discuss the country’s nuclear programme.

CHINA - Washington has previously warned banks against dealing with companies allegedly involved in Iran’s oil trade. China’s Ministry of Commerce has instructed domestic companies not to comply with US sanctions targeting refiners allegedly linked to the Iranian oil trade. Late last month, the US Treasury warned banks against dealing with so-called “teapot” refineries, privately owned companies which it said account for the majority of the oil China buys from Iran. “This revenue ultimately benefits the Iranian regime, its weapons programs, and its military,” the Treasury said in its notice.

UK - As the dust settles on an intense, targeted bombing campaign waged against the Islamic Republic in Iran, the focus now turns to how we combat the regime’s inevitable response. Because, make no mistake, there will be one. And here in the West it won’t come from the skies, but from our streets – something that may already have started. In recent weeks we have seen Iranian sleeper agents, hired thugs and radicalised regime supporters launch more than 20 violent attacks in the UK, Europe and the US.