UK - A former MI6 chief declared on Tuesday Iran 'holds the upper hand' over America after Donald Trump 'lost the initiative'. Sir Alex Younger said Tehran has 'played a weak hand pretty well' and added: 'I regret having come to this conclusion.' He said there is 'no love lost' between him and the Islamic Republic but went on to tell The Economist: 'The reality is the US underestimated the task, and I think as of about two weeks ago lost the initiative to Iran.' Sir Alex said Iran 'has been more resilient' than expected by 'delegating the authority' and 'dispersing their military capability'. The regime also 'understood the significance of the energy war' and 'globalised the conflict' as a 'very good way of putting a direct price on the US'. He said the language Mr Trump chose 'confirmed' to them they are in a 'war of existence' while for him it is 'a war of choice'. Sir Alex, who led MI6 from 2014 to 2020, concluded: 'That's imbued them with more staying power than the US. They know that now, and that is giving them the whip hand.'

IRAN - Trump has been cagey about who the US is speaking to in Iran, as droves of leaders of the Islamic Regime have been killed in the joint Israeli and US strikes. 'We killed all their leadership and then they met to choose new leaders and we killed all of them. And now we have a new group and we can easily do that but let's see how they turn out,' Trump said. The President continued to refuse to name names, but he said Iranian leaders the US is dealmaking with gave the country a 'present.' 'They did something yesterday that was amazing. Actually, they gave us a present and the present arrived today and it was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money,' Trump said. Trump said that gesture signaled one thing to him. 'We're dealing with the right people,' he stated.

IRAN - Four hours ago, Trump revealed Iran delivered an oil-and-gas concession on the Strait. The old order is finished. Four hours ago, President Trump stood in the Oval Office and said something the media will bury: Iran sent him a "present." His words. A "very big present worth a tremendous amount of money" — oil and gas related, connected to the Strait of Hormuz. And he said it proved the US is "dealing with the right people." That’s not a president who blinked. That’s a president collecting concessions. But here’s what he said that nobody else will tell you: the negotiations aren’t running through NATO or the EU or any traditional Western channel. Trump named who’s at the table — “JD is involved and Marco’s involved and Jared Kushner’s involved... and Steve Witkoff... and I’m involved.” The mediators? Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. Not a single NATO ally. The old Atlantic Alliance isn’t just sidelined. It’s irrelevant. The countries actually brokering peace are non-Western nations with skin in the game.

USA - Wall Street’s private credit crisis is spreading as another shadow banking giant blocks hundreds of millions of dollars of withdrawals from a flagship fund. Apollo Global Management has capped redemptions from one of its biggest private credit funds after investors tried to pull $1.6 billion over three months, the latest sign of stress sweeping across the $3 trillion sector. The asset management giant said the withdrawal requests totalled 11.2 percent of the fund’s $15 billion in net assets. This was more than double the 5 percent quarterly cap on redemptions that the fund allows, which Apollo said it would maintain. Private credit, which has been one of the fastest-growing sectors in finance, has been plagued by an exodus of cash as investors become increasingly concerned about defaults, and fears that the rise of artificial intelligence could render many of their investments obsolete.

USA - The US government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025. Total liabilities are now nearly eight times the value of reported assets. Congress has clearly lost control of the nation’s finances. America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming impossible to ignore.

USA - One of North America’s largest refining hubs just went up in flames. Port Arthur fuels huge parts of the eastern US. Gas prices aren’t staying calm after this. Massive explosion sends thick black smoke pouring into the sky. Visible for miles.

IRAN - "Trump, fearing Iran's response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum," Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting said in a post on X. Shortly after US President Donald Trump announced that he is deferring "any and all" strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure on productive resolution talks, Iranian media reports denied any 'direct' or 'intermediary' communication with him. Further, the official rejected Trump's claim about ongoing talks, and said that Islamic Republic of Iran will not accept any negotiations until "its objectives in the war are achieved."

EUROPE - Europe has long imagined itself as a global strategic power with the agency to shape its own destiny. Yet the geopolitical landscape of recent years has revealed a far more uncomfortable reality. Whether Europeans like it or not, the European Union’s (EU) economic stability is increasingly determined by forces outside its borders. In the east, the war in Ukraine has bound Europe’s energy and security outlook to Russia. To the south, a widening conflict between Israel and Iran is beginning to tie the Union’s economic future to decisions made in Jerusalem.

EUROPE - The boss of the International Energy Agency said the crisis caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas shortage connected to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine put together. Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency, said the crisis prompted by the US and Israel’s war on Iran was “very severe” and could get worse through prolonged disruption to “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur and helium. Birol warned that the depth of the problem, which he described as “a major, major threat’ to the world’s economy, had not been properly understood by political leaders.

IRAN - Iran has threatened to destroy the Middle East’s biggest oil factories in a move that could cripple the Gulf and trigger a global energy crisis. As well as striking oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait, Iran could target desalination plants that supply millions in the Middle East with drinking water. Such an attack could also trigger a cost of living emergency in Britain that could push fuel prices to record highs. Sir Keir Starmer is expected to hold a meeting of the COBRA crisis committee on Monday to discuss the UK response. The threat of tit-for-tat military responses from Iran and the US has also placed a “ticking time bomb” under the global market, analysts have warned. Although the US and Israel have targeted Iran’s missile capabilities heavily, Tehran is still believed to have the weapons in its arsenal to cause a crisis in the Middle East and beyond.