That in turn is set to bring to an end the 70-year era of Pax Americana, a period in which US hegemony in security, trade, and the promotion of values provided baseline predictability for the global economy. In 2017, we enter a period of deep geopolitical recession.

With these ideas as backdrop, here are the top 10 political risks for the coming year, according to the Eurasia Group — the political risk consultancy I founded and oversee. There are also a few “red herrings,” stories where we see less risk than meets the eye:

1. Unpredictable America

2, China Overreacting

3. A Power Vacuum in Europe

4. A Pause in Economic Progress

5. Technology Disrupting the Middle East

6. Politics Interfering with Central Banks

7. The White House vs Silicon Valley

8. Turkey’s Ongoing Crackdown 

9. North Korea Rattling Its Saber 

10. A Struggling South Africa

Internationally, the story is much the same. The profound shock to global confidence anticipated by the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, Uncle Tom Cobley and all, failed to materialise; Brexit had no discernible impact on the world economy. Having cried wolf over the short term consequences, the profession should not be surprised if rather more credible warnings of pain delayed are widely disbelieved.

Similarly with Donald Trump, where the widely expected economic and market mayhem his election would supposedly unleash has so far been conspicuously absent. This collective misreading has been widely attributed to the perils of “groupthink” – where opinion hugs the consensus for fear of derision - or more conspiratorially, to vested interest and deliberately misleading intent.

But there is in fact a more prosaic explanation; that as a discipline, the dismal science has quite simply lost the plot. All over the shop, economics seems incapable of answering the great questions of our time. Are we heading for deflation or inflation? Are we locked in secular stagnation or have we finally put the financial crisis behind us?

The conceit of modern economics is that it sees itself as an evidence-based science, yet if it could ever be such a thing, it is today no nearer its goal than when Adam Smith penned the Wealth of Nations, and in some respects, a good deal less so.

One passage really stood out in Merkel's memory and she quoted it verbatim: "There is no such thing as a global anthem, a global currency, a global flag. We salute one flag, and that is the American flag." No other presidential candidate in the history of the United States has ever violated the rules of decency to the degree that Trump has. That's how Merkel sees it. That helps explain why, in a brief statement given to the press following his November 9 election, she gave the kind of moral sermon that no previous German chancellor had ever delivered to a US president.

​It's not Trump's ideology that worries Merkel most. His opinions, after all, morph quickly, something that Merkel has experienced personally. As recently as August 2015, he said the German chancellor was "probably the greatest leader in the world today." Then the refugee crisis came and Trump said, "What she's done in Germany is insane. It's insane." It's Trump's character that worries Merkel most, his craving to be loved and admired and his fury against all those who refuse to do so.

Merkel has been in office for 11 years and she knows very well just how unstable the world order has become. "Many have the feeling that the world has been turned upside down," she said at the CDU's annual party conference at the beginning of December. It was a tone that one seldom hears from Angela Merkel.

Merkel's problem is that she knows very little about the real estate mogul and his new administration. During the election campaign, there was only sporadic contact between the German government and Trump's people, which was also a product of the fact that few in Berlin believed the Republican candidate would actually win. It's Merkel's belief that Trump is only impressed by strength.

Thomas de Maizière, Germany’s interior minister and a close ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, argued that such a step was needed to steel the country against modern threats posed by terrorism, cyberattacks and an increased number of migrants seeking to enter the country.  The federal governments of Germany’s European partners and other established democracies already hold such powers, he noted, stressing that “it is time” to re-examine Germany’s security setup.  “We don’t have federal jurisdiction to deal with national catastrophes.”

“The jurisdiction for the fight against international terrorism is fragmented,” he wrote in a guest column for the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, one of the country’s leading newspapers. “The security of the state must be able to be controlled by the state,” Mr de Maizière argued.

Christian Mölling, an expert with the security policy department of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, warned against forgetting the role played by the past in shaping many Germans’ attitudes about a centralized police force.

“​Many Americans tend to look at modern Germany through a lens shaped by the former West Germany,” Mr Mölling said.  “You need to keep in mind that this country has considerable experience with dictatorships, and consequently there is a significant tract of the population that does not wish to see the return of the secret police that was previously part of their daily life.”  

"We regret the decision but the German federal government will, as in the past, be represented by a high-level delegation," WEF organizers said Monday. A spokesman for Merkel said: "It's true that a Davos trip was being considered, but we never confirmed it, so this is not a cancellation." The chancellor's office cited a scheduling conflict as reason for Merkel's non-attendance, although it declined to provide more detail.

Merkel's office also did not comment on whether her decision was linked with last month's attack on a Berlin Christmas market that killed 12 people. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen (both from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party) are expected to attend.

Merkel's absence marks the first time she will miss the Davos summit for two consecutive years, and may come as a significant blow to organizers. This year's conference will take place under the banner "Responsive and Responsible Leadership," and talk will likely be dominated by public resentment toward the political establishment and globalization. Amid widespread populist revolt, Merkel is widely regarded as a principled leader who would fit the themes of the summit.

Merkel's decision to ditch this year's WEF reflects other leaders' reluctance to attend the conference, which every year is staged at a luxurious ski resort and has become synonymous with the global elite. Some 3,000 people are expected at the summit from January 17 to 20, ranging from political leaders to CEOs of large global firms.

Hinting that a break-up of the Union is more than likely, Mr Teltschik said the bloc’s main players France and Germany were “stuttering”. The German politician said: “European integration was the peacemaking response of the Europeans to the catastrophe of two world wars. No generation in Europe has ever been able to live in peace, freedom and prosperity for seventy years.” 

“We are witnessing an erosion of the EU with the euro crisis, with Brexit and the emergence of populist movements in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria or Italy and the authoritarian Eastern neighbours, especially in Poland, Hungary, Romania.” Speaking of the embattled Brussels club, Mr Teltschik added: "The European Commission is overwhelmed with criticism almost every day, often enough by those who make the decisions, or rather don't make them, for the EU at the European Council."

“The German-French engine has been stuttering for years.” Mr Teltschik also issued a chilling warning, telling Europeans to brace for an ongoing migrant crisis, which he says has only just begun, along with more Islamist-inspired terror attacks. He said: “The refugee wave is only the beginning. Millions of Arabs, Africans, Pakistani, Afghans, and others, tormented by war, terror and poverty, are looking for new life perspectives. The communist ideology is dead. Today, we are witnessing a totalitarian and murderous Islamism with its terrorist acts, that are spreading across borders. No upper limits or video surveillance will help with this."

Concluding that the embattled European Union is “failing as a team player” and turning its back on its past experiences in the wake of a Cold War, he asks: “What Europe do we want?  Should a core Europe go ahead? Suddenly, a defensive union is being discussed again, without a common foreign and security policy within sight. And this in a world that is re-forming itself. Everything suddenly seems to be on the test. The experience of the past decades has been pushed aside.”

However, the respected institute said that far from promoting far-right ideology, the publication had enriched a debate on the renewed rise of "authoritarian political views" in contemporary Western society. It had initially planned to print only 4,000 copies but boosted production immediately based on intense demand. The sixth print run will hit bookstores in late January.

The two-volume work had figured on the non-fiction bestseller list in weekly magazine Der Spiegel over much of the last year, and even topped the list for two weeks in April. The institute also organised a successful series of presentations and debates around "Mein Kampf" across Germany and in other European cities, which it said allowed it to measure the impact of the new edition.

"It turned out that the fear the publication would promote Hitler's ideology or even make it socially acceptable and give neo-Nazis a new propaganda platform was totally unfounded," IfZ director Andreas Wirsching said in a statement. "To the contrary, the debate about Hitler's worldview and his approach to propaganda offered a chance to look at the causes and consequences of totalitarian ideologies, at a time in which authoritarian political views and rightwing slogans are gaining ground."

Chinese farmers have said there is no available water for crops except “dirty water.” As part of the country’s industrial prowess, it is also one of the largest producers (and consumers) of fertilizers and pesticides, Water Politics reported. The site noted further that as China’s industrial might grows, so too does the level of contaminants in the country’s water supply. Lakes, rivers, streams and falling water tables are becoming more polluted by the year.

In addition to man-made pollutants, animals produce about 90 percent of the organic pollutants and half of the nitrogen in China’s water, say experts at the Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning. There are times when water is so polluted it turns black – yet it is still used to irrigate crops, and of course, that affects so-called organic farming operations as well.

These nine foods are particularly vulnerable to becoming tainted, Natural Health 365 noted:

Fish: Some 80 percent of the tilapia sold in the US come from fish farms in China, as well as half the cod. Water pollution in China is a horrible problem, so any fish grown there are suspect.

Chicken: Poultry produced in China is very often plagued with illnesses like avian flu.

Apples and apple juice: Only recently has the US moved to allow the importation of Chinese apples, though American producers grow plenty for the country and the world.

Rice: Though this is a staple in China and much of the rice in the US comes from there, some of it has been found to be made of resin and potato.

Mushrooms: Some 34 percent of processed mushrooms come from China.

Salt: Some salt produced in China for industrial uses has made its way to American dinner tables.

Black pepper: One Chinese vendor was trying to pass off mud flakes as pepper.

Green peas: Phony peas have been found in China made of soy, green dye and other questionable substances.

Garlic: About one-third of all garlic in the US comes from China.