A new generation of politicians is aiming to Islamise the state by stealth. The AKP - Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, or Justice and Development Party - has a stranglehold on Turkey for the foreseeable future.

Since coming to power, the AKP has done nothing revolutionary, but it does have a revolutionary agenda. For all their suavity, its leaders seek to transform the country into a Sunni Muslim republic. This collides with institutions and laws strictly limiting Islam's role in public life, and with a long-standing security alliance with Israel.

It also collides with democracy itself, for no Koranic state can have a sovereign parliament free to legalise such abominations as equal rights for women and homosexuals or the drinking of alcohol. A sinister slogan attributed to the AKP is that democracy is 'a bus we can ride until we reach our station'.

Under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his foreign secretary Abdullah Gul, the party has been cautious until now. But abroad the AKP has been more strident. Turkey has stepped up relations with Muslim countries and cooled them with Israel. Moreover, the party shares the Islamist belief that Europe will inevitably be conquered by the high birth rates of its Muslim inhabitants - and Turkey's entry would immediately add some 70 million.

The party has also done its best to Islamise the bureaucracy. Even in Istanbul, post-office employees now stop work for Friday prayers, and civil servants are no longer expected to work a full day during Ramadan. And just to make sure, the AKP has literally bought public opinion in poor urban areas by distributing food packages, paid for by contributions from big business.

The losers are clear. They are the United States and all nations which hang on with their tight US$ peg for political reasons. As the battle rages, central banks will flood the global system with an avalanche of money.

The OPEC nations gathered, met, left some microphones 'accidentally' open, discussed oil issues, but also currency matters. As a group, they are nervous about both the decline in their reserve holdings from the US Dollar, and price inflation within their local economies.

The open mike revealed Saudi concern over a collapsing US Dollar. The group of Gulf nations will inevitably dump their US$ tight peg in favour of a basket. Such a basket already exists within the Arab world, but my forecast is that the Chinese yuan basket will be formally adopted as a compromise measure. CHINA CARRIES CLOUT, and their basket will be too convenient for transactions. The effect on the US Dollar exchange rates will be a quantum drop down, likely to take the US DX index toward the 70 level.

WE ARE WITNESSING THE FRACTURE OF THE PETRO-DOLLAR DEFACTO STANDARD. Earthquakes to the global banking are assured. In response, foreign currency managers (central banks) will attempt to lower interest rates, so as to weaken their currencies, even as high currency exchange rates damage their economies. Rigging the system goes hand in hand with war. In war the first victim is truth.

POWER WILL SOON RETURN TO SWITZERLAND FOR GLOBAL BANKING. An alternative to the US Dollar as an investment currency is being utilized effectively. This is a tectonic shift not reported much in the financial media. Wall Street banks are insolvent, an ugly truth slowly being revealed. The phrase "insufficient capital" means insolvent!!!

A great quote came from the financial markets recently when Wall Street banks were going through the charade of admitting their balance sheet losses. "Whatever they estimate losses to be, eventually they will end up being double."

It takes eighteen months or so for the full effects of currency changes to feed through, so the damage will snowball late next year and beyond into 2009. Although "damage" is a relative term. A NEW POLITICAL ORDER WILL SOON TAKE HOLD IN MUCH OF EUROPE, bringing in a new wave of prickly national populists.

So, how will they fight? Will Mr Sarkozy and his allies resort to 1970s-style exchange controls to stem the rise of the euro? Any decision would be taken by EU finance ministers under qualified majority voting. BRITAIN WOULD HAVE NO VETO, even though the effects of such a move on the City of London would be catastrophic - AND TRIGGER THE CERTAIN WITHDRAWAL OF BRITAIN FROM THE EU (and good riddance, some might say in Paris).

THIS "DISTURBING" CAPITAL MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW. Portfolio inflows into the eurozone reached a record EUR46.2bn in September. China, Asian wealth funds, Petrodollar sheikdoms, and now even Nigeria, have all joined a stampede into euros, utterly disregarding THE UNDERLYING REALITY THAT EUROPE IS IN NO BETTER SHAPE THAN THE UNITED STATES ITSELF. It is in worse shape, though this is disguised by the cycle. It is much worse in terms of economic dynamism and demographics.

Confidence has cratered in Germany, and the Netherlands, not to mention Belgium - which has not had a government for 165 days, and is now sliding towards disintegration. Since Belgium is a metaphor for THE EU - AN ARRANGED MARRIAGE OF SQUABBLING TRIBES, SPEAKING DIFFERENT LANGUAGES, WHO DO NOT LOVE EACH OTHER, AND NEVER DID - this in itself amounts to a tremor for the EU system.

France is in the grip of a national strike costing EUR2bn a day. The railways are paralyzed. The country's 5.2m public workers are staging walk-outs. IS THIS A CURRENCY BLOC THAT SHOULD BE NOW BE DEEMED THE ULTIMATE SAFE-HAVEN, the repository of trust in a dangerous economic world? This hodge-podge of disputatious clans, lacking a central Treasury, government, debt union, and guiding philosophy - let alone the sacred solidarity of a nation?

EUROPE'S RETORT - IF AND WHEN IT COMES - WILL BE FAR MORE POLITICAL, AND FAR MORE DRAMATIC. WE ARE AT ONE OF HISTORY'S "INFLEXION POINTS".

One recalls the months leading up to the collapse of the Gold Standard in 1931. That was triggered first by Credit Anstalt in Austria and then by a British naval mutiny in Scotland.

Any bets on what will trigger the collapse of Bretton Woods II? I wager that it will be a decision by THE GULF STATES TO BREAK THEIR DOLLAR PEGS, leading to a temporary surge of euro purchases. That will tip Mr Sarkozy over the edge.

Incredibly, instead of mourning the loss of a family that never was, her boyfriend (now husband) presented her with a congratulations card. While some might think it strange to celebrate the reversal of nature and denial of motherhood, Toni relishes her decision with an almost religious zeal. "Having children is selfish. It's all about maintaining your genetic line at the expense of the planet," says Toni, 35.

"Every person who is born uses more food, more water, more land, more fossil fuels, more trees and produces more rubbish, more pollution, more greenhouse gases, and adds to the problem of over-population." While most parents view their children as the ultimate miracle of nature, Toni seems to see them as a sinister threat to the future.

She claims she was far from alone. "Through my job I made many friends who, like me, were more interested in campaigning, trying to change society and save the planet rather than having families of our own.

When Sarah Irving, 31, was a teenager she sat down and wrote a wish-list for the future. Most young girls dream of marriage and babies. But Sarah dreamed of helping the environment - and as she agonised over the perils of climate change, the loss of animal species and destruction of wilderness, she came to the extraordinary decision never to have a child. "I realised then that a baby would pollute the planet - and that never having a child was the most environmentally friendly thing I could do."

Mark, her husband adds: "Sarah and I live as green a life a possible. We don't have a car, cycle everywhere instead, and we never fly. We recycle, use low-energy light bulbs and eat only organic, locally produced food. In short, we do everything we can to reduce our carbon footprint. But all this would be undone if we had a child.
That's why I had a vasectomy. It would be morally wrong for me to add to climate change and the destruction of Earth".

"Sarah and I don't need children to feel complete. What makes us happy is knowing that we are doing our bit to save our precious planet."

Admiral Lord Boyce told the House of Lords that servicemen and women were being put in danger because of a shortage of investment and that funding for the main areas of defence was falling.

The comments were made as the true scale of the Army manpower crisis was laid bare with new figures showing that the shortfall in the number of troops has increased by 50 per cent in the last year. The MoD admitted it was short of 4,500 soldiers - the equivalent of almost an entire brigade.

He warned: "We are seriously endangering our people because of the lack of money being given to equip, train and properly support those in the second line preparing to rotate to the frontline. Is it not immoral to commit forces that are under-prepared and ill-equipped for their task?"

The shortage of troop numbers has been blamed on problems both recruiting and retaining personnel. With most of the Army on continuous operations for the last four years in Iraq and Afghanistan the strain on soldiers and their families has been immense.

FOR adults, the world of teenagers can seem a strange place: volcanic outbursts over the most minor problems; bands and clothes that go in and out of fashion on a weekly basis and friendships that end for the slightest reason. But any parent looking for insight into this difficult-to-comprehend segment of society could do worse than pick up the novel voted by Scottish teenagers as the best children's book of the year.

However, those hoping to find their children enjoying a latter-day Famous Five or the successor to Harry Potter might be horrified to learn that its heroine is a portrait of teenage rebellion. Scarlett by Cathy Cassidy tells the story of a red-headed anti-hero who is viewed by all in authority as a "problem child". She flouts her school's dress code, hates rules or authority, spouts insolence to parents and teachers alike, starts an anti-meat riot in the canteen and get herself expelled.

And that's just the first five pages.

China's Foreign Affairs Ministry on Wednesday suddenly blocked a five-day visit by the giant vessel and its strike group, despite prior approval and weeks of advance planning. Then a day later, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said that Beijing would relent but said that its change of heart was 'a decision out of humanitarian consideration only.' Eric Hagt, editor of China Security Journal, a defense publication based in Washington, said "It's a little odd, it all seems rather unforeseen."

China's Defense Ministry offered no public statement. Nor did it provide any back-channel explanation, U.S. military officials said. China's turnaround also came too late, said Lt. Cmdr. John Filostrat, a spokesman with the U.S. Pacific Fleet. The Kitty Hawk waited as long as it could before logistics forced it to sail away.

The decision wasn't meant as some sort of U.S. countersnub, he said. "It's now en route to its base in Yokosuka, Japan."

The state of emergency "represents a serious violation of the Commonwealth's fundamental political values," the body's Secretary-General Don McKinnon said at a news conference in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, today.

Pakistan will be barred from attending meetings of the Commonwealth, which represents almost a third of the world's population, and receiving assistance from the group. The U.S., Musharraf's closest ally, has led international pressure for him to lift the emergency decree before Jan. 8 elections and release thousands of political prisoners.

Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled yesterday that Musharraf's re-election last month was valid, clearing the way for him to meet his pledge to take the presidential oath for a second five- year term as a civilian. Pakistan was previously suspended in 1999 after Musharraf took power in a military coup. It was restored to full membership in 2004, although members continued to press for Musharraf to step down as head of the army.

The full report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission also provides more details than the summary released last week, showing that China is engaged in a "large-scale industrial espionage campaign" with "scores" of cases involving spies seeking U.S. technology. The full report presents a harsh assessment of China's military buildup and plans for a war against the U.S. if Beijing decided to use force against the island nation of Taiwan.

The report provides evidence countering statements by Chinese officials, and some U.S. officials, who say China's buildup is peaceful. "The Commission concluded that China is developing its military in ways that enhance its capacity to confront the United States," the report stated. "For example, China has developed the capability to wage cyber-warfare and to destroy surveillance satellites overhead as part of its tactical, asymmetrical warfare arsenal."

On Taiwan, the report said tensions between the island nation and China produced an "emotionally-charged stand-off that risks armed conflict if not carefully managed by both sides. Such a conflict could involve the United States," the report said. The U.S. military is "significantly exposed to such attacks," because of its reliance on systems of command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, the report said.

The jellyfish, covering an area of around 10 square miles, engulfed the Northern Salmon Company's cages off the province's northeastern coast, suffocating 100,000 fish, the firm's Managing Director, John Russell, told Reuters on Thursday. "It was sheer devastation -- I've been 30 years in the salmon industry and I've never seen anything like it," Russell said.

Staff on their way to give the fish their morning feed noticed a "reddish-brown tinge" to the sea and then realized the boats were struggling to make headway through an expanse of jellyfish up to 35 feet deep, Russell said. "A few hours later all our salmon were dead, the bulk of them suffocated."

The attack, by a type of jellyfish known as a "mauve stinger", happened late last week off the coast of County Antrim, an area popular with tourists. The mauve stinger, noted for its purplish night-time glow, is more commonly found in warmer Mediterranean waters.

This will be enough to treat about half the British population - the proportion scientists now believe could be hit by a pandemic. Mr Johnson said the updated plan makes the country one of the most prepared in the world against pandemic flu. Some scientists believe a global flu pandemic could be imminent.

He said the use of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu would be a key defence against pandemic flu in the weeks it would take to develop a vaccine against the culprit virus, but did not say what the financial cost would be. Antivirals do not cure people of the flu but reduce the severity and length of the illness if taken early on.

The government also aims to buy 350 million surgical masks and 34 million respirators for frontline NHS and social care staff. The measures are for a "reasonable worst-case scenario", which would see between 25% and 50% of the UK population infected. Experts predict that up to 750,000 extra deaths could occur in the UK as a result of a pandemic, with up to half the population developing illness.

The Philippines is trying to avoid a repeat of last year's devastating typhoon Durian, which killed 1,200 people and left 120,000 homeless when it crashed through Bicol, the country's typhoon alley.

Glenn Rabonza, the head of the civil defence office, said about 10,000 people living on the slopes of Mayon volcano in Bicol had already been evacuated and the number was expected to rise to 50,000 in the next 24 hours. "Coastal villages could be slammed by big waves as high as 3 to 10 metres whipped up by strong winds brought by the typhoon."

Mitag, currently a category 1 typhoon with winds of 120 kph (75 mph) and gusts of up to 150 kph (95 miles), is expected to make landfall either late Saturday or early Sunday. Ahead of the storm, workers dismantled advertisement billboards placed along Manila's major roads. Many such billboards collapsed during a storm last year, killing several people.

"The joint exercise, to be held in Southwest China's Yunnan Province, will focus on counter-terrorism measures," the Australian Associated Press quoted Kar as having said Wednesday. "This is important to boost bilateral ties."

"The long-term friendly and mutually beneficial cooperation for common development between China and India will profoundly influence the look of Asia and the world at large," Wen said. "It has been proved that the China-India friendly and cooperative relationship has benefited the two peoples and promoted peace, south-south cooperation and world development."

Corroborating the premier, Singh said India-China ties are beyond and above bilateral matters. They are related to peace, stability and prosperity in the region and the world beyond. "India and China are not rivals, but friends and partners."

At the time that he claimed to be defending "civilised standards", Rhodesians had already witnessed the flight of Belgian refugees from the Congo; IDI AMIN had trashed Uganda, and MOBUTU SESE SEKO was about to introduce an even more brutal and dysfunctional regime in neighbouring Zaire; immediately to the north of Rhodesia, KAUNDA's Zambia was in a mess, riddled with corruption and economically mismanaged, and Malawi was being similarly misruled by the eccentric despot HASTINGS BANDA. So why, Smith argued, would Mugabe be any different? Why, indeed.

At our meetings, he spoke endlessly about how Rhodesians had been more British than the British, how Churchill - had he been alive - would almost certainly have emigrated from corrupt, liberal England to Rhodesia, and how this small community of decent, fair-minded whites had been BETRAYED by, well, just about everybody he could think of - the Tories, Labour, the Afrikaners, the OAU, the UN. Not surprisingly, he called his ponderous autobiography The Great Betrayal.

IT WAS EASY TO MOCK IAN SMITH, BUT HE WAS RIGHT - BOTH ABOUT THE BETRAYALS AND ABOUT THE QUALITY OF MOST AFRICAN POLITICIANS. Smith had run a successful emerging African country and, although the whites were the main beneficiaries, there was increasing prosperity among the black population. Above all there was a sound, intelligently managed economy, free from the post-colonial blight of corruption.

Today, Zimbabwe is a failed state with a non-functioning economy, a once-flourishing agricultural sector now moribund, and a population on the brink of starvation. According to a UN Development Programme index, life expectancy there today is one of the lowest in the world. So much for liberation.

If you were to go to Harare today and ask ordinary black Zimbabweans who they would rather have as their leader - Smith or Mugabe - the answer would be almost unanimous. And it would not be Mugabe. It is perfectly ironic that Mugabe's deputy information minister, BRIGHT MATONGA, when told of Smith's death this week, described him as a man "who brought untold suffering to millions of Zimbabweans". Those words surely apply more to his own leader than to Ian Smith.

Bank of England deputy governor Sir John Gieve, former U.S. Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development all said that financial markets are deteriorating as the lending squeeze continues to bite.

Sir John, who is responsible for UK financial stability, signalled he is increasingly worried that the credit crunch could have dire effects on the British economy, while Mr Greenspan said "progress has come to a halt". The blizzard of warnings came as shares in the stricken bank Northern Rock plunged 14 per cent to 84.8p. Northern Rock has now lost more than 93 per cent of its value in the past year.

His fears about the market malaise were echoed by the OECD, which released a grim analysis of the prospects for the world economy. The highly-respected Paris-based watchdog warned world stock markets could be on the brink of a major collapse because of the crisis sparked by a meltdown in America's mortgage market.