Corporate America is braced for the worst period of economic uncertainty since the start of the decade as the credit squeeze and the housing meltdown heighten the risk of a US slowdown.
US chief executives say the economic outlook has not been so difficult to read since the last recession in 2000-01. They warn that in spite of signs of a pick-up, the threat of an economic contraction is still alive. Conflicting economic indicators and volatile business conditions make it difficult to take strategic decisions such as whether to hire or fire staff, or increase or slash capital expenditure, business leaders told the Financial Times.
They said they would watch the third-quarter earnings reporting season, which begins this week, to gauge whether companies had managed to cushion the twin blows from the housing crisis and the liquidity squeeze.
"The economic environment is uncertain because over the summer the economy was thrown a number of curve balls and it is unclear what the long-term impact of that is going to be," said Jim Tisch, the chief executive of Loews, the hotels-to-pipelines conglomerate.
Chief executives of companies with international operations are more bullish, arguing that the weak dollar and solid global growth should offset domestic weakness. "What is keeping demand up is the emergence of new purchasers in China, India and eastern Europe," said Fred Smith, the chief executive of logistics giant FedEx . "The force field of the internet, fast-cycle transportation and globalisation transcends any one economy."
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian warned in a national address Wednesday that China's military build-up was threatening world peace, and urged it to halt military exercising targeting the island.
In a National Day speech ahead of a parade aimed at underscoring Taiwan's defence capabilities, he also called on China to withdraw ballistic missiles that are aimed at the island. "With China's rapid rise and relentless military build-up, the 'China threat' is no longer confined to confrontation across the Taiwan Strait. In fact, it has already seriously impacted world peace," he said.
Chen urged the international community to "strongly demand that China immediately withdraw missiles deployed along its southeastern coast targeted at Taiwan, stop military exercises simulating attacks on Taiwan." The independence-leaning Chen accused Beijing of ignoring peace overtures and using "ever more belligerent rhetoric and military intimidation."
He said the tactics were "aimed at denigrating our nation, marginalizing it in the world, cultivating the perception that Taiwan is a local region of China, delegitimizing its government, and undermining its sovereignty. Only the people of Taiwan have the right to decide their nation's future," he added.
"Taiwan and the People's Republic of China are two sovereign, independent nations, and neither exercises jurisdiction over the other. This is a historical fact. This is the status quo across the Taiwan Strait."
Taiwan and China split in 1949 after the end of a civil war, but Beijing still regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.
The threat from terrorism in the UK is "mounting day by day", Britain's top policeman Sir Ian Blair has warned MPs.
"The number of the conspiracies, the number of conspirators within those conspiracies and the magnitude of the ambition, in terms of destruction and loss of life, is mounting, has continued to mount year by year," he said in his report to the Home Affairs Select Committee.
The Metropolitan Police chief also urged MPs to consider extending the current detention limit beyond 28 days. "The prospect that we will need more than 28 days some time in the not too distant future is so real a prospect that Parliament needs to consider it," he said. Sir Ian Blair admitted that more effort needed to be made to explain to the Muslim community why the police believed the extension was needed.
He added that the increased threat of terrorism meant that "a pragmatic inference can be drawn that at some stage 28 days is not going to be sufficient". The Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) has already backed his comments. "The ACPO position on pre charge detention remains unchanged. The issue is not simply one about the number of days, but of having sufficient time to secure evidence in the most serious of cases.
"Investigators are facing unprecedented international dimensions in cases along with growing volumes of complex evidence and networks. It is not difficult to envisage a situation whereby the current limits would not be sufficient. It is right, therefore, that we are having this debate now, because we can and not because we have to."
The US economy will see little or no recovery next year from its present downturn.
It's housing market slump and the global credit squeeze continue to take a toll on growth, the International Monetary Fund will say next week, according to leaked forecasts. The IMF is preparing to cut sharply its previous projections for the US and world economy in its twice-yearly assessment of the global outlook next week, the leaked drafts of its impending report showed last night.
As Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, prepares to unveil his first PreBudget Report today, the figures show that the fund is also set to cut its forecasts for Britain's growth next year to only 2.3 per cent, down from the 2.7 per cent that it projected in April. That will come as some consolation to Mr Darling, however, with the consensus City view of UK growth for 2008 already even weaker at just 2 per cent.
The IMF is much gloomier about the US, with the papers showing that it will cut its forecast for American growth next year to 1.9 per cent - dramatically weaker than the 2.8 per cent expansion it saw in April. Such a weak US showing next year would mean little or no revival for the world's biggest economy from this year, and most likely a further deterioration in conditions. Consensus forecasts are presently for US growth this year of 2 per cent.
The draft showed more modest cuts in the IMF's 2008 forecasts for other key economies, with eurozone growth coming down to 2.1 per cent, from the 2.5 per cent expected in April, and Japan now projected to see a 1.7 per cent expansion, down from 2 per cent.
The leak came as sharp divisions opened up yesterday between the eurozone's biggest economies over the threat posed by the euro's rise to record levels, driven by the sliding dollar. Despite open French and Italian concern at the euro's gains, Peer Steinbrück, Germany's Finance Minister, took a much more relaxed stance during a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Luxembourg. "I prefer a strong euro," he said. Laughing, he added: "I love cash and a strong euro."
Ten white farmers appeared in court in Zimbabwe yesterday accused of growing crops on their land - in a country where millions of people will need food aid within the next few months.
The case in Chegutu district, 70 miles southwest of Harare, exposes the perversity of President Robert Mugabe's policies. Commerical agriculture was the mainstay of the economy in the days when Zimbabwe was a food exporter. The World Food Programme estimates that it will be feeding 4.1 million Zimbabweans, one third of the population, by the end of the year. But none of that has stopped the Zanu-PF regime.
Now the Chegutu group is charged with violating the Consequential Provisions Act, which gave the few hundred remaining white farmers a final deadline of Sep 30 to leave their land and homes. The colonial-era Chegutu courtroom was packed by the so-called "war veterans" who are Mr Mugabe's staunch supporters, and "beneficiaries" who stand to be given the properties should the 10 be convicted.
The farmers, aged from 38 to 75, produce a variety of food from chickens to oranges and have already given two-thirds of their farms to the government for resettlement. All but one still work their remaining land intensively and say they intend to try to continue.
They were remanded on bail and their lawyer David Drury sought to have the case referred to the supreme court, which is due to rule on the constitutionality of the land law. They pleaded not guilty and face up to two years in prison if convicted.
Outside the court, the scruffy shops of Chegutu were empty of basic foods, and street vendors sold small, sour oranges. They came from a once-prolific citrus farm in the district now devastated after it was seized by Bright Matonga, the deputy information minister, earlier this year.
Most British troops could be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of next year under an exit strategy outlined by Gordon Brown yesterday.
Mr Brown said British troop numbers would be halved to 2,500 by next spring when a further decision on the next phase would be taken. Ministry of Defence officials said that all British troops could be out by the end of next year, although Downing Street expressed caution about the prospect.
However, Mr Brown's announcement was marred by a political row over the total number of troops that will be left in the region this Christmas. Last week during his visit to Iraq Mr Brown said 1,000 troops would leave by Christmas. It then became clear that the departure of 500 of them had already been announced. Yesterday it emerged that while a further 500 will leave Iraq by Christmas another 500 support and logistical staff will be sent out to Kuwait at the same time, leaving the total number in the region at 5,000.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office on Monday morning denied the report in Al-Quds al-Arabi that he and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had agreed to transfer the Temple Mount's holy sites to Jordanian custody.
The Prime Minister's Office said that no agreement had been reached on the holy sites in Jerusalem. According to the report in the London-based newspaper, Olmert and Abbas had agreed that the Temple Mount sites would be under Jordanian jurisdiction in a final peace deal, and Jordanian citizenship would be granted to 90,000 east Jerusalem residents. The report also said it was likely that a supreme supervisory commission would be established, which would include representatives from the UN, Egypt, Jordan, Israel and the PA. The report drew strong criticism from the right-wing.
MK Uri Ariel (NU/NRP) said: "If the report is true, the Israeli government has stripped itself of any linkage to Zionism or its Jewish roots. The Olmert government is trying to destroy the dreams of thousands of generations who have dreamed and worked to return the Jewish people to its land," continued Ariel, vowing: "we won't let him succeed."
Ariel's party colleague MK Aryeh Eldad said that if Israel willingly gives up sovereignty of the Temple Mount to a foreign power "it will lose its moral, historical, legal and religious justification for existence. This is post Zionist, nonsensical and suicide," he said.
MK Tzi Hendel (NU/NRP) said: "I warned long ago that Olmert would divide Jerusalem, and now it is clear that even the Temple Mount, which is the heart and soul of the Jewish people, is going for cheap." Shas chairman Eli Yishai said that "whoever thinks he has the authority to give up Jerusalem is wrong. The obligation to keep Jerusalem is solid, not a political gust of wind."
Southeast China was digging out Tuesday from flooding and landslides after remnants of Typhoon Krosa deluged the region with torrential rains, causing damage estimated at more than US$1 billion.
Authorities arranged the evacuations of nearly 1.6 million people in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, to the south of Shanghai.
Stirring up hatred against homosexuals is to become a serious crime punishable with a seven-year jail sentence under a law announced last night.
The legislation - similar to laws already in force outlawing persecution on religious or racial grounds - will make criminals of those who express their views in ways that could lead to the bullying or harassment of gays. The maximum sentence is longer than the average of around five years handed to rapists.
The announcement widened the rift between opposing supporters of freedom of speech and gay rights. Christian groups condemned it as "a law to allow Christians to be locked up for what they believe". But the gay pressure group Stonewall said those who disapprove of homosexuals would have nothing to fear from the law if they express their views in a manner that is "temperate" and "polite".
Justice Secretary Jack Straw told MPs the gay harassment law will be included as an amendment to the Criminal Justice and Immigration Bill currently going before Parliament, though ministers have yet to decide the wording. Mr Straw said: "It is a measure of how far we have come as a society in the last ten years that we are now appalled by hatred and invective directed at people on the basis of their sexuality. It is time for the law to recognise this."
He raised the prospect of extending the law to cover "transgendered" people and the disabled. The new law aims to catch those who do not explicitly call for attacks or discrimination against homosexuals, as this is covered by existing incitement laws. Instead, police will be allowed to pursue those who create an "atmosphere or climate" in which hatred or bullying can be fostered. Officials said it would not prohibit criticism of gay, lesbian and bisexual people or joke-telling.
The final decision over who has "crossed the line" will rest with the police.
On Wednesday, the last day of the Sukkot festival, a 34-person delegation from West Papua presented a large amount of gold to be used in the building of the Holy Temple.
The delegation, including representatives of the nation's government, explained that they study the Bible regularly and recently came upon a verse in Zecharia (6:16) reading "And the distant ones will come and build the Temple of G-d." They discussed the passage among themselves and decided that their faith obligates them to fulfill the verse.
West Papua, located in the southwestern Pacific Ocean, is rich in gold mines, so the delegation thought it natural to donate gold for the Holy Temple. The Holy Temple will be built in the place where the First and Second Temples once stood - on Jerusalem's Temple Mount. The group heard of the Temple Institute in Israel, which deals with advancing the building of the Temple, and on Hoshana Raba - the 7th day of Sukkot - the delegation arrived at the Institute's headquarters in Jerusalem's Old City and presented the gold to Rabbi Yisrael Ariel, a founder of the institute, and Yehuda Glick, its director.
The group presented a kilogram of gold and a large sum of money. They requested that the gold be used to construct vessels for the Temple and that the funds be used by the institute for any purpose it sees fit. The institute has a fund set aside for exclusive use for the actual construction of the temple, as well as funds for building the vessels and engaging in educational projects.
Rabbi Chaim Richman of the Temple Institute and Israel National Radio, said that, in view of the Halakhic problems that could be caused by specifically consecrating money and gold for the Holy Temple, an escrow account was opened, as was a safe deposit box for all donations; both have been explicitly set aside for use in building the Temple, and will remain untouched until then.
Rabbi Ariel said the episode was emotional as it constituted the fulfillment of the words of the prophets that nations will come from afar to help build the House of G-d in Jerusalem. "There is no doubt that this is a sign that the rest of our prophets' prophecies will soon be fulfilled as well."
Over 100,000 Muslims will be allowed to attend prayers this Friday at the Temple Mount as it is the fourth Friday of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month
The Israelis and Palestinians have reached an agreement by which, in a final peace deal, the Temple Mount's holy sites will be transferred to Jordanian custody
The London-based newspaper, Al-Quds al-Arabi, said it was agreed that Jordanian citizenship would be granted to 90,000 east Jerusalem residents. According to the report, it is also likely that a supreme supervisory commission would be established, which would include representatives from the UN, Egypt, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
When Israel and Jordan signed a peace deal in 1994, it was agreed that Israel would honor the special role of the Hashemite Kingdom over the Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem and in a final Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, Israel would give high importance to Jordan's historic role over the holy sites. Israel Radio reported that Jordan had recently set up a new fund for the renovation of Al Aksa Mosque and Dome of the Rock to reinforce its presence there. The head of the fund even proposed that Jordan give Jordanian passports to some 90,000 east Jerusalem residents.
Meanwhile, Vice Premier Haim Ramon told Israel Radio that the question of who will have custody of Jerusalem's holy sites must not be discussed at the moment. "We must decide that in that area there will be a special regime which we will discuss in the future," he said. Ramon added that there was a consensus in the cabinet that "no Palestinian refugee should return to Israel under the law of return - legal or moral." However, he proposed a discussion over refugees who wanted to return for humanitarian reasons, saying that "the idea that this will cause Israel's collapse is ridiculous."
Northern Rock stands accused of "reckless" lending after it emerged this weekend that the beleaguered bank is still offering mortgages of six times salary to potential borrowers.
Despite provoking the worst banking crisis for decades, the bank last week offered a reporter posing as a first-time buyer a £180,000 mortgage even though he had a salary of only £30,000. The loan was at least £30,000 more than other leading lenders were prepared to offer. Repayments for the loan would have accounted for more than 60% of the fictional buyer's take-home salary.
The reporter, posing as another potential customer, was also offered a so-called "negative equity mortgage" worth 117% of the value of the property he claimed to be interested in buying. The mortgages offered by other banks to the same potential borrower were significantly lower. Financial experts were this weekend stunned that Northern Rock is offering such loans a week after it was forced to turn to the Bank of England for emergency funding. Yesterday it emerged that Northern Rock has been forced to borrow about £3 billion from the Bank in the past week.
Northern Rock is to court further controversy by pushing ahead with a plan to pay a £59m dividend to shareholders and executives this week. The Financial Services Authority gave special dispensation to the bank in July to dip into its assets to pay out the dividend - which is 30% higher than last year's payout.
Politicians yesterday expressed dismay that the government and its regulators had not stepped in to supervise Northern Rock's business practices following the government bail-out. George Osborne, shadow chancellor, said: "One week Alistair Darling [the chancellor] is attacking the lending culture in this country, the next he is issuing emergency guarantees for people's mortgages and savings."
George Mudie, a Labour member of the Treasury select committee said: "Of all the people, have Northern Rock learnt nothing? It is reckless."
The Anglican bishops of the United States have gathered to decide whether they will provoke the biggest schism in the Church of England since its foundation by Henry VIII.
At issue is the role of gays in the Anglican Communion and the status of Gene Robinson, a homosexual father of two daughters who was elevated three years ago to become the Bishop of New Hampshire. The appointment of Bishop Robinson, who lives openly with another man, his partner, Mark Andrews, is viewed as a slap in the face by conservative members of the American church and by the increasingly vocal and powerful Asian and African Anglican congregations, who see homosexuality as an affront to the will of God.
On Tuesday, the American bishops, the majority of whom are liberals, are expected to vote to support a greater role for gays and lesbians in the Church, both with regard to the creation of new bishops and the blessing of same-sex relationships. Unless they can be persuaded otherwise, it seems certain the move will irrevocably split the Church, ending the Anglican Communion and creating an alternative alliance between Africa and conservatives in the US.
The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, arrived for a frenetic round of last-minute shuttle diplomacy in a series of private meetings. He said, "This is not a very comfortable place to be, it is somewhat like the situation for soldiers in the First World War in the trenches - we can't remember how we got here and most of us don't want to be here."
It could not be more appropriate that the final battle is set for New Orleans, a city so steeped in its reputation for sin and debauchery that the fire-and-brimstone wing of America's Christian Right attributed the destruction of Hurricane Katrina to the cleansing wrath of the Almighty.
Words are more temperate in the Anglican Church. But the implications of a vote by the US bishops in favour of greater gay rights would be no less serious. The Most Rev Peter Akinola, the Archbishop of Nigeria, met Dr Williams at Lambeth early last week and left him in no doubt as to the potential repercussions of such a step by the Americans. "This is a watershed in the history of the communion," admitted the Most Rev Barry Morgan, Archbishop of Wales. "This is a struggle for the heart of the Anglican Communion."
Both the conservative and liberal sides have been seeking support from Dr Williams for their positions, placing him under intense pressure. But by the time he headed for the city's Louis Armstrong International Airport, setting off on a visit to the Anglican community in Lebanon, the archbishop appeared to have accepted that on Tuesday the 159 bishops of the Episcopal Church, as the two-million-strong Anglican congregation is called in the United States, are almost certain to support a bigger role for gays.
American bishops at the summit have been quick to declare their support for Bishop Robinson, who had been so upset by an earlier call from Dr Williams for a choice to be made between gays and the communion that he accused the archbishop of "dehumanising" homosexuals.
The African archbishops and their allies believe that the pro-gay liberals have abandoned biblical teaching. In one of the most passionate speeches at last week's summit, the Rt Rev Mouneer Anis, Primate of the Middle East, accused the American church of "walking apart" from the standard teaching of the communion.
"You may believe you have discovered a very different truth from that of the majority in the Anglican Communion," he said. "But some say you are a different church, others even think that you are a different religion."
The Africans have already been plotting with conservative members of the American church to create a new alliance, in effect a separate communion, if they lose the fight over homosexuality.
Climate Change: Did NASA scientist James Hansen, the global warming alarmist in chief, once believe we were headed for . . . an ice age?
An old Washington Post story indicates he did. On July 9, 1971, the Post published a story headlined "U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming." It told of a prediction by NASA and Columbia University scientist S.I. Rasool. The culprit: man's use of fossil fuels.
The Post reported that Rasool, writing in Science, argued that in "the next 50 years" fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun's rays that the Earth's average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to 10 years, Rasool claimed, "could be sufficient to trigger an ice age."
Aiding Rasool's research, the Post reported, was a "computer program developed by Dr. James Hansen," who was, according to his resume, a Columbia University research associate at the time. So what about those greenhouse gases that man pumps into the skies? Weren't they worried about them causing a greenhouse effect that would heat the planet, as Hansen, Al Gore and a host of others so fervently believe today?
"They found no need to worry about the carbon dioxide fuel-burning puts in the atmosphere," the Post said in the story, which was spotted last week by Washington resident John Lockwood, who was doing research at the Library of Congress and alerted the Washington Times to his finding.
Hansen has some explaining to do. The public deserves to know how he was converted from an apparent believer in a coming ice age who had no worries about greenhouse gas emissions to a global warming fear monger. People can change their positions based on new information or by taking a closer or more open-minded look at what is already known. There's nothing wrong with a reversal or modification of views as long as it is arrived at honestly.
But what about political hypocrisy? It's clear that Hansen is as much a political animal as he is a scientist. Did he switch from one approaching cataclysm to another because he thought it would be easier to sell to the public? Was it a career advancement move or an honest change of heart on science, based on empirical evidence?
If Hansen wants to change positions again, the time is now. With NASA having recently revised historical temperature data that Hansen himself compiled, the door has been opened for him to embrace the ice age projections of the early 1970s.
Could be he's feeling a little chill in the air again.
Today we find the Church of God in a “wilderness of religious confusion!”
The confusion is not merely around the Church – within the religions of the world outside – but WITHIN the very heart of The True Church itself!
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