Plans for the lavish Europe-Africa summit were thrown into turmoil after Gordon Brown threatened to pull out if Robert Mugabe is invited. There was consternation after PORTUGUESE DIPLOMATS DEFENDED THE DECISION TO INVITE THE ZIMBABWEAN DICTATOR ON THE GROUNDS THAT HE HAD BEEN A "FREEDOM FIGHTER" AGAINST BRITISH COLONIAL RULE.

And African leaders said they would boycott the showcase meeting if the Zimbabwe strongman was barred from travelling to Portugal in December. But Portugal, which currently holds the EU presidency, complained that the Zimbabwe issue was "holding hostage" relations between Europe and Africa. And ZAMBIA'S PRESIDENT SAID HE AND OTHER LEADERS WOULD BOYCOTT THE EVENT IF MR MUGABE WAS EXCLUDED. His threat raised the prospect of the summit collapsing in disarray.

Yesterday Portugal claimed the event could go ahead without Brown. "It will be very hard not to invite Mugabe. ZIMBABWE IS IN RUINS AFTER MORE THAN 20 YEARS OF MUGABE RULE THAT HAS LEFT IT WITH THE WORLD'S HIGHEST INFLATION RATE OF ABOUT 6,600 PERCENT AND JOBLESSNESS OF ABOUT 80 PER CENT. HE KEEPS A GRIP ON THE COUNTRY THROUGH A REIGN OF TERROR. "

Zambia's President Levy Mwanawasa - head of a 14-nation southern African group seeking to end Zimbabwe's political and economic crisis - said he would boycott the summit if Mugabe was not invited and said other African leaders could do so too. "I will not go to Portugal if Mugabe is not allowed. I don't know how many of us (African leaders) will be prepared to go to Portugal without Mugabe," he said in the Zambian capital Lusaka. Ghana - the official summit host - has made clear that it wants Zimbabwe's leader to receive the same courtesy as everyone else.

Conservative Euro-MP Neil Parish said: "Portugal's invitation to Robert Mugabe to attend the EU-African Union summit in December must be revoked." Mr Parish - who is banned from entering Zimbabwe for speaking out against the regime - went on: "The travel ban is pointless if we continue to invite Mugabe to the more prestigious meetings on European soil. THE PORTUGUESE EU PRESIDENCY IS SENDING OUT A TERRIBLE SIGNAL THAT WE ARE PREPARED TO DO BUSINESS WITH DICTATORS. THIS INVITATION IS A DISGRACE AND MUST BE REVOKED."

Home Office research revealed that - of 5.4 million crimes logged by officers - only one in eight ended with a criminal charge or summons being made. In a shocking 3,953,000 cases, the equivalent of 73 per cent of all recorded crimes, the offender was simply not caught. Even when police did manage to catch the culprit - fewer than half were dragged before the courts or received a formal charge.

Instead, they escaped with a caution, on-the-spot fine, warning for smoking cannabis or had their crime "taken into consideration" alongside other offences. Of all the crimes reported last year, only 693,821 were punished using the traditional route of a criminal charge and appearance before a magistrate or judge.

Experts and Opposition MPs warned it was yet more proof of the lurch towards "soft justice". Overall, the detection rate for recorded crimes remained stable last year, at 27 per cent. But this was only achieved thanks to a huge increase in the number of minor offences, such as drunkenness, which were punished by fixed-penalty notices. Along with warnings for cannabis, these £80 on-the-spot fines now represent 15 per cent of all crimes police claim to have solved.

Police Minister Tony McNulty said: "We have seen crime fall by a third over the last decade and this is in large part thanks to the range of powers available to the police to bring offenders swiftly to justice."

More than $4 million of U.S. taxpayers' money ebbed away in the 18 minutes it took George W. Bush to explain to his country and the world last week why the war he ordered would last well beyond his presidency. During an eight-hour working day, U.S. tax dollars spent in the battle zones of Iraq total $112 million. These figures are extrapolated from a report by the Congressional Research Service (CSR), a bipartisan agency which provides research and analysis for the U.S. Congress. It put the war's average cost in 2007 at around $10 billion a month.

That translates into $333 million a day, $14 million an hour, $231,000 a minute and $3,850 a second. Even for the world's richest country, this is serious money. It dwarfs what the United States is spending on efforts to alleviate the huge humanitarian crisis that unfolded after the 2003 invasion. Sectarian fighting has driven more than 4 million people from their homes, a population displacement without parallel in modern Middle Eastern history.

The consequences of the war were never part of the planning. And its high cost is a long way from the Bush administration's optimistic initial estimates. Then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, one of the war's chief promoters, even predicted the post-invasion phase would be self-financing. The number of U.S. troops in Iraq is now at a record high - 168,000. The cost of the war is not projected to decline despite plans for a phased withdrawal that will reduce troop levels by next summer to what they were before the so-called surge.

Troop levels are one of the factors that determine the cost of the war. Another cost driver: repairing and replacing worn-out equipment, from helicopter engines and tank tracks to Humvees, armored personnel carriers and machineguns. Opponents of the war have begun to focus on its high cost and stress what could be done with the dollars spent in Iraq -- improving American education and healthcare and fixing ageing U.S. infrastructure.

The comparisons almost invariably center on things that could be done or bought in the United States for the benefit of Americans. Iraqis do not figure prominently in these analyses and the humanitarian disaster now unfolding is not much of a topic of discussion among Washington policy makers. That, at times, dismays international aid officials who deal with the terrified multitudes who have fled waves of ethnic cleansing in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion. Around 2 million went to neighboring countries, mostly to Jordan, Syria and Egypt, by the count of international relief organizations.

Another 2.2 million fled from their homes and sought refuge elsewhere in Iraq. Shiites driven out of Sunni neighborhoods, Sunnis fleeing Shia districts, Arabs expelled from Kurdish areas, Kurds from predominantly Arab districts. The movement dwarfs even the great population dislocations prompted by the 1948 creation of Israel, when an estimated 750,000 Palestinians fled their homes in fear for their lives.

Many of the internally displaced Iraqis -- IDPs in the language of aid organizations -- live in grim conditions, in makeshift camps without running water, electricity, even latrines. Improving such conditions would be cheap, measured against the cost of the war, but appeals for increased funds have fallen on deaf ears.

Blackstone sold a near 10 per cent stake in its management company to the Chinese government in May. A different arm of the Abu Dhabi government bought a stake in Apollo Management in July. Selling stakes to international sovereign wealth funds has become a popular way for US buy-out groups to cash in on their booming businesses while expanding their influence in new markets. The Carlyle deal demonstrates that the credit squeeze has not halted such transactions.

Mubadala, the arm of Abu Dhabi which has invested in sectors as diverse as Libyan oil exploration and Ferrari, the Italian motor company, is paying $1.35bn for the Carlyle stake. The deal was struck at a 10 per cent discount to a valuation of $20bn for all of Carlyle. The Washington-based buy-out group agreed to guarantee a floor to Mubadala's investment, pledging to compensate the arm of the oil-rich emirate if Carlyle goes public and the share price drops.

Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein said, in an interview with the Financial Times, that the deal gave his firm "more capital to invest in our funds and more flexibility in terms of deciding whether to go public". The investment comes as Carlyle faces pressure on Capitol Hill from lawmakers who want to impose a tax hike on the private equity industry.

The deal could also come under political scrutiny if Carlyle pursues sensitive takeovers in areas such as defence, technology or critical infrastructure. Carlyle has alerted key lawmakers to the deal, including Chuck Schumer, the New York Senator, and Bush administration officials at the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US.

Nearly 50 per cent of the London Stock Exchange is now in the hands of two rival Gulf states battling to be their region's leader in the global consolidation of exchanges. Qatar Investment Authority and Borse Dubai now own 48 per cent of the LSE following a complex series of deals in which ownership of Europe's exchanges is being realigned.

Borse Dubai secured 28 per cent of the LSE as part of a wider deal with the US-based Nasdaq designed to settle their long-running battle for control of the Nordic exchanges and technology operator OMX. The Dubai group bought most of Nasdaq's 31 per cent stake in the LSE for £14.40 a share in cash. In return, it will take a 19.9 per cent stake in the combined Nasdaq/OMX group and receive cash.

However, the move enraged the Qatar Investment Authority, which until Tuesday night believed it was close to clinching a deal to buy much of the LSE stake for itself. It responded on Thursday by buying nearly 20 per cent of the LSE, sparking expectations of a bidding war for the exchange. LSE on Thursday welcomed the Qatari move because it sees QIA as a passive investor.

Meanwhile, the QIA also bought nearly 10 per cent of OMX, a move widely interpreted as a sign that it, too, will make a competing offer for the Stockholm-based group. It issued a statement calling on OMX shareholders to do nothing in response to Borse Dubai's offer.

LSE shares soared on Thursday, closing £2.34 higher at £16.87.

Twice-divorced Gabriele Pauli, who is attempting to become leader of the ultra-conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), believes anyone wanting to stay married beyond seven years should have to apply for an extension. The partnership would otherwise be automatically dissolved.

The 50-year-old maverick last year rattled the all-white and male-dominated hierarchy of her party, which rules the Catholic southern state of Bavaria, by posing for magazine photographs dressed as a dominatrix in latex and leather. Speaking at the launch of her manifesto, she said: "I firmly believe marriages of the future should be locked in to a time period.

"The basic approach is wrong - many marriages last just because people believe they are safe. My suggestion is that marriages expire after seven years. I know that after this period many marriages reach a crisis point. It is false to go around with a notion that marriages are always super and intact."

The CSU has dominated Bavarian politics since the Second World War. It is the sister party of the conservative Christian Democratic Union - which is led by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.

In a complex set of transactions, Dubai is moving to acquire 19.9 percent of the Nasdaq in New York, placing the Arab government in an ownership position of the key U.S. stock exchange and raising concerns in Congress. As a result of the transaction, Dubai also will acquire 28 percent of the London Stock Exchange, one of the oldest and largest in the world.

The transaction is being made through Borse Dubai, a holding company 100-percent owned by the government of the Emirate of Dubai and controlled by Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the head of the Dubai ruling family.

According to its website, Borse Dubai was created Aug. 6 as the holding company for Dubai Financial Market and Dubai International Financial Exchange in a move to consolidate the Dubai government's two stock exchanges "as well as current investments in other exchanges, expanding Dubai's position as a global capital market hub."

The announcement set off a firestorm of criticism in Washington, prompting President Bush to comment today in a news conference, "We're going to take a good look at it, as to whether or not it has any national security implications involved in the transaction. I'm comfortable with the process to go forward."

A storm moving into the Southland from British Columbia is bringing unseasonably cold temperatures, snow at high elevations and steady precipitation, a welcome sight for many on the heels of a 2006-07 weather year that was the driest on record in Los Angeles.

The cold front arrived in Northern California on Wednesday, months ahead of schedule, bringing temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Generally, average September temperatures hover at 74 degrees in downtown Los Angeles.

"The storm is pretty unusual. It's pretty much our first winter storm of the season, and it's barely fall," said Oxnard-based meteorologist Edan Lindaman of the National Weather Service. The last measurable rain in downtown Los Angeles was April 22.

Firefighters across Southern California have been hampered by extremely dry conditions. Los Angeles County Fire Department spokesman Tom Richards said rain was welcome during fire season. Rain is "always a benefit," Richards said.

"But on the converse side of that is: Too much rain in fire stricken areas can cause mudslides. Once an area is burned out, it has nothing to hold the soil in place. All the foliage is burned up, so all the moisture sinks right to the soil, which causes it to slide down the hills."

Signs of the plan are everywhere, here are just a few:

a.. FLOOR PLANS AND BLUEPRINTS FOR AMERICAN SCHOOLS have been found in al Qaeda safe houses in Iraq.

B.. OSAMA BIN LADEN RECEIVED RELIGIOUS PERMISSION TO KILL UP TO 2 MILLION AMERICAN CHILDREN.

C.. Chilling al Qaeda video footage showing their operatives TRAINING TO TAKE OVER MOCK AMERICAN SCHOOLS and issuing their commands in English have been uncovered in Afghanistan.

D.. SEVENTEEN SCHOOL BUSES HAVE BEEN STOLEN from the Houston area along with thousands of school bus radios in the Pacific Northwest.

THE LIST GOES ON AND ON, YET MOST AMERICANS KNOW NOTHING ABOUT IT. Sources in law enforcement, the military and intelligence circles think that when the attack comes it will look very much like the horrible school siege of Beslan, Russia -- except that it will happen in multiple schools at the same time across the country for maximum impact.

Experts I have spoken with believe that the attack will most likely happen in America's heartland; at a school where there will be a significant lag time between the 911 call being received and a tactical team getting to the site. It will also likely be at a school where the boys are too small to fight back.

The question I heard the most when I first started talking about this scenario was "why?" WHY WOULD THEY ATTACK THAT WHICH IS MOST PRECIOUS TO US: OUR CHILDREN? DON'T THEY KNOW THAT OUR RESPONSE WOULD BE OVER-WHELMING? YES, THEY DO. AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY ARE COUNTING ON.

They want us to attack innocent, peace-loving Muslims in our communities and set fire to each and every mosque we can find. They want that imagery to be used overseas as propaganda, and THEY WANT IT SHOWN ON AL JAZEERA SO THAT 80 MILLION MUSLIMS ARE EXPOSED TO AMERICANS STARTING WHAT WILL INEVITABLY BE POSITIONED AS A HOLY WAR.

The terrorists will not negotiate with us. They are intent upon creating the most disturbing, horrific carnage possible. Even if we could have reached the 9/11 hijackers via radios, there is nothing anyone could have said to make them turn those planes around. It will be the same once they have launched an attack upon our children.

The terrorists have told us loud and clear what they plan to do. Beslan was their playbook. We know they are coming for our children and we know what they intend to do. Feigning ignorance in the aftermath to justify our lack of preparedness will not stand. We must act now, we must prepare -- and it must be for the worst.

(BRAD THOR, A NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR AND A FORMER MEMBER OF THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY'S RED CELL ANALYTIC PROGRAM.)

Syria's state-run SANA news agency boasted that the nation had already succeeded in putting Israel's nuclear arsenal on the conference's agenda. The item is entitled: "Israeli nuclear capabilities and threat." Iran is not referred to by name on the agenda.

Mervyn King will appear before a cross-party committee of MPs with his credibility on the line after an abrupt reversal of his strategy to quell market turmoil. The change of tactics, which left much of the City open-mouthed, led to angry attacks on his management in the Square Mile and at Westminster.

He was being criticised privately in Whitehall for staying silent as the Northern Rock affair unfolded last weekend, for apparently obstructing a potential rescue of the bank by Lloyds TSB, and for taking an excessively hard line with banks caught in the squeeze.

Some ministers were suggesting that he might not be reappointed for a second five-year term as governor when the present one runs out next year. In the City there were calls for his head as he adopted a policy of intervention that until recently he had resisted. Critics were unmoved. One very senior banker said: "I think Alistair Darling should resign and the Governor should go with him. It's a fiasco".

"At the end of the day, the Bank's only role is to prop up the banking system and give us confidence. But in the last week they've proved that they don't understand the situation at all." Criticism increased as sources close to Northern Rock said that if the Bank had taken yesterday's action several weeks ago - when the US did - the events that led to last week's run need not have taken place. Northern Rock could have continued to operate and fund its obligations, the sources said.

The Abbey loan, the biggest of its type ever offered to UK house buyers, is entirely secured on the property. This means borrowers could lose their home for missing a payment even on the portion of the loan beyond the property's value.

The scheme leaves Abbey open to accusations that it has failed to heed the lessons of the Northern Rock crisis and is snubbing the Government's call for a return to responsible lending. THE DEAL - BEING OFFERED TO FIRST-TIME BUYERS AND OTHERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN A PILOT SCHEME - HAS SOUNDED ALARM BELLS AMONG DEBT ADVICE EXPERTS, WHO SAY TAKING IT UP WOULD BE LUNACY.

The mortgage would immediately lock the buyer into huge negative equity --owing more than their property is worth. If property prices fall in some parts of the country over the next year, as many experts predict, this negative equity would balloon still further. In the event of an economic downturn, there is a good chance that some takers would find themselves adding to the 30 per cent rise in home repossessions that the industry reported earlier this year.

THE TIMING OF THE LAUNCH COULD NOT BE WORSE. The troubles of Northern Rock have highlighted concerns about irresponsible lending by banks. Keith Tondeur, director of the debt advice charity Credit Action, said: "There are real dangers. SOMEONE TAKING ON THIS LOAN WOULD HAVE TO BE INCREDIBLY BOLD OR INCREDIBLY STUPID.

Abbey defended the deal, insisting it would be useful to those buyers who need extra cash to furnish a property. A spokesman said the bank carries out personal finance checks on customers to ensure they can afford the repayments.

The spokesman made the remarks during his weekly press conference while commenting on the current visit to the occupied Palestine of the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Qods Day is held each year on the last Friday of Muslims fasting month of Ramadan after it was nominated by the late Founder of the Islamic Republic, Imam Khomeini, as a day to voice the protest of the Islamic Ummah against the Zionists.

The day falls on October 12 this year.

"The US loses all opportunities to cooperate with regional and other world states by trying to support a regime (the Zionist regime) which is now at its weakest political and social position," Elham said. He warned that Washington's insistence on its wrong policies and arrogant approaches would have no result "but further political disgrace" for itself.

Referring to the approaching World Qods Day, the spokesman stressed, "Supporters of the Zionist regime will definitely receive the final response for their support on that day."

The "enemy entity" designation is in part a legal device to buttress Israel's argument it does not have to fulfil requirements of international humanitarian law to supply electricity and fuel to Gaza. However, a senior United Nations official said cutting electricity would violate international law, and he urged Israel to reconsider its decision.

Israel pulled its troops and settlers out of Gaza two years ago and insists this brought an end to its occupation of the enclave, captured in 1967. But Israel continues to control the area's airspace, coastline and border crossings. The north of Gaza has served as a base for cross-border rocket attacks against Israel. Last week, a rocket wounded 69 soldiers at a military base, and attacks from the strip have disrupted daily life in the border town of Siderot.

Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, speaking at a press conference in Tel Aviv with Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister, voiced understanding for the Israeli decision but avoided questions about its legality. "Hamas is, indeed, a hostile entity in the view of the United States as well," she said. But she went on: "We will not abandon the innocent Palestinians in Gaza and we will continue to try to meet their humanitarian needs."

Ms Livni said: "All the needs of Gaza that are more than humanitarian will not be supplied to the Gaza Strip. We hope Palestinians understand that supporting these terrorists is not going to help them." A Hamas spokesman, said Israel's decision was "a declaration of all-out war for which the occupation [Israel] will bear all consequences in the security, economic and health fields". He predicted the move "will fail in the face of the steadfastness of the Palestinian people".

Most of Gaza's 200MW supply of electricity comes from Israel, and yesterday marked an intensification of Israeli and US policy aimed at turning people against Hamas by making living conditions in the impoverished enclave even more difficult.

A WORLD Bank report this week described the economic situation in Gaza as "acute". Gaza's main border crossings have been closed to all but humanitarian supplies, prompting the suspension of up to 90 per cent of industrial operations. "The impacts will become more difficult to reverse," said the bank. It estimated unemployment could reach 44 per cent.

Despite the embargo, Israeli and outside officials say Hamas has been able to bring in tens of millions of dollars to fund its military and social programmes.

"This is a very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas. Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. THEY FACE AN INFLATIONARY THREAT AND DO NOT WANT TO IMPORT AN INTEREST RATE POLICY SET FOR THE RECESSIONARY CONDITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES," he said.

The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg. As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilising its own economy.

The Fed's dramatic half point cut to 4.75pc yesterday has already caused a plunge in the world dollar index to a fifteen year low, touching with weakest level ever against the mighty euro at just under $1.40. THERE IS NOW A GROWING DANGER THAT GLOBAL INVESTORS WILL START TO SHUN THE US BOND MARKETS. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.

The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit -- expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP. Mr Redeker said foreign investors have been gradually pulling out of the long-term US debt markets, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term funding. Foreigners have funded 25pc to 30pc of America's credit and short-term paper markets over the last two years.

"They were willing to provide the money when rates were paying nicely, but why bear the risk in these dramatically changed circumstances? We think that a fall in dollar to $1.50 against the euro is not out of the question at all by the first quarter of 2008," he said. "THIS IS NOTHING LIKE THE SITUATION IN 1998 WHEN THE CRISIS WAS IN ASIA, BUT THE US WAS BOOMING. THIS TIME THE US ITSELF IS THE PROBLEM," HE SAID.